Will the 2012 Class Live Up to 2007?
When it comes to recruiting, you're perpetually seeking to raise the bar on talent for your team. If the incoming class is inferior to the one you recruited 4-5 years ago, then presumably your overall talent declines. A decline in talent would presumably be evident on the field as would an improvement. The easy way to compare classes might just be to count stars or recruiting rankings. But that's an oversimplification. Rather, the true measure seems to be how many scholarships pan out to where you'd offer them again in hindsight versus how many you'd wish to have back.
One of the biggest advantages the emerging class of 2012 has over 2007 is the size. The class of 2012 might have only 15 players whereas the class of 2007 had 28 names. That might seem like an advantage for 2007, but really it's an indicator of how much better recruiting and retention has been from 2008-2011 versus 2003-2006. The four-year track record for Bo Pelini's staff of finding "keepers" improved by about 3 players per year. That bodes well for the upcoming class.
Still, the 2007 class had a lot of good names. There was Prince Amukamara, Jared Crick, Roy Helu, Eric Hagg, Larry Asante, and Niles Paul. Not to mention a bunch of other contributors in Marcel Jones, Curenski Gilleylen, Terence Moore, Armando Murillo, Zac Lee, Adi Kunalic, Blake Lawrence, Quentin Castille, Ryan Hill, and Patrick Witt. Other names that didn't pan out so well included Aaron Schulte, Kevin Dixon, Jaivorio Burkes, Shukree Barfield, William Yancy, Joseph Townsend, LaTravis Washington, Marcus Mendoza, Anthony Blue, Shawn Sullivan, and Demetrious Davis.
It's far too early to name the sure hits and misses for 2012 but there are some that seem as "can't miss" as we've seen. Barring injury, it would be shocking if Mohammed Seisay does not become a contributor at cornerback. Likewise, recent history with junior college transfers tells us to expect contributions from linebacker Zaire Anderson. So far, both Ben Cotton and Jake Cotton have become contributors so you'd expect things to work out for Sam Cotton as well.
Linemen can be hard to project, but Paul Thurston is a highly rated offensive tackle prospect. The same could be said about young linebackers but Michael Rose appears to be as highly rated as any player in the upcoming class. Jordan Westerkamp is the most highly touted wide receiver recruit for Nebraska since Niles Paul and compares favorably with NU's number two all-time receiver Nate Swift. Greg McMullen is more highly touted than any defensive end recruited in 2007. Likewise, Tommy Armstrong is more sought after as a quarterback than either Zac Lee or Patrick Witt. Thomas Brown, Avery Moss, and Jared Afalava all had multiple Pac-12 offers, which sets them ahead of some recruits at similar positions in 2007 like Jospeh Townsend and Austin Stafford.
Don't expect to see Nebraska garner national attention for its class on signing day. But if the name of the game is to make improvements over time, there's evidence of that here. Considering how hastily the class of 2008 was assembled, you might expect an even bigger step forward in 2013.
1/19/2012
The final paragraph is unsupported by what comes before it. Where is the evidence that Nebraska is making improvements over time? How does the 2012 class, without having played a down, serve as such evidence?
And which one is it: stars/ratings are an oversimplification or they are good shorthand for projection? Finally, “an even bigger step forward” suggests that big steps forward already have been made. This, of course, turns on what one’s expectations are—a point left unsaid in the post.
1/19/2012
The only part of this article that I really agree with is this statement…“Don’t expect to see Nebraska garner national attention for its class on signing day”. Those are the truest words spoken about our recruiting so far in any article. Recruiting is something which this coaching staff is absolutely horrible at (as evidence, Vanderbuilt has a better recruiting class this year than we do - let that one sink in for a moment). Our recruiting class is ranked 36th last time I checked, probably lower now. That doesn’t bode well for good football my friends. We are on an extreme downward spiral and no one seems to know it. We have so many issues that recruiting is just one of the many. Recruiting, using the talent we already have wisely, developing talent, taking care of turnovers, not creating turnovers, penalties, falling apart under pressure, the list is endless. Some teams believe it or not don’t have tall of these problems…those are called Champions.
If we don’t get Andreas Peat, this class will certainly be a complete bust unless someone in it really turns out to be a huge star. But truthfully, you have to have 2-4 guys, or more, turn out to be really heavy contributors to call a class a success.
We’re going to have a to be a LOT more patient than we had hoped with Pelini. It will be 3-4 more years before we can begin to see anything close to a championship, his decisions have put us that far behind where we cold have been. He’s barely out of training wheels as far as being a HC and running a sound program. Heck, he can’t even hardly speak intelligently!
When you have to rely on bringing in Juco transfers to start next season, your in trouble. Granted, we’ve had some greats from the Juco ranks, and God bless them, but what it really indicates is you haven’t done things right in the past, your in a situation now, and you need to go out and hopefully find someone that can save your butt. That’s where we are in recruiting overall for this program.
Who recruited the 2007 class anyway? The article didn’t mention that small fact. How about an article stating the truth? That would be refreshing instead of all these articles drawing at straws, trying to find the thinnest of positives, hoping things turn out OK. It’s the 500 pound gorilla in the room. Pelini’s first year came in 2008. Now that we’re beyond Callahans recruits, it’s starting to fall apart and Bo is being exposed for the lousey recruiter he is.
1/19/2012
PE
Actually take a look at Vandys class and you can realize they are ranked higher because they have a larger class plain and simple.. thanks to the SEC and their oversigning this will work out for them..
Nu has more 4 stars then vandy on everysite Ive looked at and Vandy has more low rated players on all sites as welll..
247 sports
Vandy has
1- 4 star
16 - 3 stars
Rest lower than 3
NU
6- 4 stars
5-3 stars
Rivals has vandy having
4 - 4 star recruits
16-3 star recruits
While Nu has
5-4 star recruits
6-3 star recruits
Scout has Nu with
3-4 stars
7- 3 stars
1- 2 star
Vandy has
2- 4 stars
16- 3 stars
3- 2 stars
1/19/2012
According to 247 sports
Nu also has 5 guys ranked 92 or higher.. Vandy has one at 92,, Look at these classes first, we definately have higher quality players , just less of them.. Let that sink in ..
1/19/2012
My favorite line today:
“Heck, he can’t even hardly speak intelligently!”
1/19/2012
@ Bill - my thoughts exactly. In addition, I believe it is correctly spelled “Vanderbilt” - ...
1/19/2012
Good points. They are still ranked higher though. Do you not think we, being Nebraska, shouldn’t be in at least the top 15 classes routinely? I do. And without it, I doubt we’ll ever be able to hang with the big boys and be relavent again. That means no championships unless something else changes drastically.
Why don’t you find this out for us…how many of the top 100 players coming out of high school this year, or even the top 200, have agreed to come to Nebraska, or we are actively recruiting and actually are in the running with…not just sent a letter too. That might be intersting. Also, I’ll tell you who I am high on in our lowly class, and that’s Tommy Armstrong and Justin Westerkamp…saw some tape of them recently…those guys can flat out play. Once again, if we get Peat, and especially if we get Valentine, Bo will save a little face from doing such an incredibly bad job of overall recruiting, coaching, player development and talent usgae, program management and not being able to stop the huge turnover problem he’s had since…well, since he started. Like I said, he sure could use a home run right about now since he’s laid such huge eggs the last couple years.
1/19/2012
In the words of one of our own coaches…Corey Raymond…“look at their guys and look at ours”...nuff said.
1/19/2012
These aren’t my thoughts, exactly, but here are some figures and data comparing Pelini to other Nebraska coaches through their first 4 years…just sayin’
Record and winning percentage
Bob Devaney (1962-1965) 38-6 (.8636)
Frank Solich (1998-2003) 42-9 (.8235)
Tom Osborne (1973-2007) 37-10 (.7755)
Bo Pelini 38-16 (2008-present) (.7037)
Callahan 27-22 (2004-2007) (.551)
Bowl record
Osborne 3-1 Wins: Cotton (Texas), Sugar (Florida), Bluebonnet (Texas Tech)
Devaney 2-2 Wins: Gotham (Miami), Orange (Auburn)
Solich 2-2 Wins: Fiesta (Tennessee), Alamo (Northwestern)
*Pelini 2-2 Wins: Gator (Clemson), Holiday (Arizona)
Callahan 1-1 Wins: Alamo (Michigan)
(*Does not include Bo’s 2003 Alamo Bowl win when he was the interim HC.)
Record versus AP Top Ten teams
Solich 4-4 (.500)
Wins: #9 Washington, #5 K-State, #6 Tennessee, #2 Oklahoma
Losses: #2 K-State, #5 Arizona, #3 Oklahoma, #1 Miami
Devaney 2-3 (.400)
Wins: #6 Oklahoma, #5 Auburn
Losses: #10 Oklahoma, #2 Arkansas, #4 Alabama
Pelini 2-7 (.222)
Wins: #7 Missouri, #9 Michigan State
Losses: #4 Missouri, #7 Texas Tech, #4 Oklahoma, #3 Texas, #10 Oklahoma, #7 Wisconsin and #10 South Carolina
Osborne 1-5 (.167)
Wins: #9 Texas Tech
Losses: #3 Oklahoma, #1 Oklahoma, #7 Oklahoma, #7 Arizona State, #8 Oklahoma
Callahan 0-3 (.000)
Wins: 0
Losses: #2 Oklahoma, #4 USC, #1 USC
Conference Record
Devaney 25-3 (.8928)
*Solich 26-7 (.7878)
Osborne 19-10 (.6551)
*Pelini 22-12 (.6470)
*Callahan 15-18 (.4545)
(*Includes conference championship games.)
Double-Digit Losses
Devaney 3
Solich 4
Osborne 5
Pelini 7
Callahan 15
Number of Division or Conference Titles
Devaney Division (N/A) Conference- (3)
Solich Division (1) Conference (1)
Osborne Division (N/A) Conference (T in 1975)
*Pelini Division (2) Conference (0)
Callahan Division (1) Conference (0)
(*Pelini’s 2008 team tied Missouri for the North Division title, but didn’t qualify for the Big 12 Conference championship due to a loss to the Tigers.)
Final AP Rankings
Osborne 7th, 7th, 9th, 9th
Devaney NR, 5th, 6th, 5th
Solich 19th, 3rd, 8th, 8th
Pelini NR, 14th, 20th, 24th
Callahan NR, 24th, NR, NR
Surprised even me…
1/20/2012
PE is right. And he used what I was going to post:
“In the words of one of our own coaches…Corey Raymond…“look at their guys and look at ours”
Austin, TX
1/20/2012
I think the problem with the bowl game was more a loss of poise (both coach and players) than our having so far inferior talent. We should have had a decent lead at halftime if we hadn’t shot ourselves in the foot a couple of times in the second quarter. Also, as many have said, the comparisons with previous coaches is difficult to justify. Osborne and Solich both took over national championship caliber teams…Pelini did not. And he also had a lot more off-the-field issues to deal with than any of the others. Do I think he can handle things better at times and still has room to grow…yes. But I don’t think you can just look at records, or even margin of victory/loss, to make a complete comparison. Bo needs to finish this recruiting class strong though, or we will suffer for it. I’m willing to see how it finalizes before I cast too much judgement…I think he’s done a pretty good job so far, not good, bad, or great obviously, but pretty good. I will also say though, that the margin of loss is concerning. One would think that in year 4, if we’re moving in the right direction, we shouldn’t have been getting blown out by anyone, especially multiple times in a season. Again the issue with loss of poise comes up and must be dealt with moving forward.
1/20/2012
Anybody know what Tom Osborne’s salaries were during his career?
Seems to me at one point I recall $80,000- $90,000.
Those estimates are from the mid to late 1970’s.
1/20/2012
I am officially calling Corey Raymond out for talking down about his team.
A few of us get crap around here when we say that we don’t think that a particular player whom is getting playing time is really up to standard… but yet nobody calls out a COACH for putting down kids that are STILL IN HIS PROGRAM?
What gives?
Bellevue, Nebraska
1/21/2012
In 1991 the Nebraska Cornhusker’s incomming class was ranked 28th in the country. I don’t think I need to remind anyone of what that class accomplished.
San Diego, Ca.
1/22/2012
I’d always thought the ‘07 class would be considered good. Callahan was starting to cut down on the JCs; there were “only” 6. The class had 7 future pros, including Asante and Kunalic, 9 Joes and 11 noes.
So far, it looks like Pelini’s cut down on the number of guys, who don’t hardly play at all. As I poke this out, Okafor and Ward are moving on, having just graduated. A guy, Alexander, has verballed.
Max just put out the spring roster, and the number of Seniors and Juniors is, breathtaking! There are at least 40 upperclassmen who should compete for playing time, since about all of ‘em have lettered. Plus, at least 13 Sophomores. This team, more than any in the last 10 seasons, has the experience and number of athletes, to justify top 10 expectations.
They’re all Pelini guys. All fed and bred, into the system. When you look at the roster though, you don’t see much obvious future pro talent. In other words, not many physical mismatches, which are what the pros are looking for.
I see alot of guys, who I don’t think have reached their potential. Now, would be a great time.
The big guys, aren’t overpowering. The “little guys” are fast enough, but not physically dominant. Except for Stafford and Enunwa. But, they’re not known for speed.
So yeah, I’d totally understand the opinions of those who are bent on criticizing Pelini. Those, who expect Nebraska to be at the level of Osborne’s and Devaney’s best teams.
Except that, he’s effectively brought Nebraska solidly into top 25 status, with a bowl winning %, equal to Nebraska’s all time.
For those who’ll take a step back and look at it and be honest, post Osborne, Nebraska’s played year in and year out, a tougher regular season schedule than most of Osborne’s. Which, didn’t always prepare Osborne’s teams, when they lined up against the Florida teams, in January.
2/13/2012
this is the best post I have ever read on this site. Well plyaed, sir. I am forever in your debt.