What’s the Right Number?

The preseason consensus for Nebraska places the Huskers around sixth in the country. Given where Nebraska has been over the last decade, that's a final season ranking that most fans could be happy about. When the season begins, we'll begin to gauge whether or not the Huskers can live up to those expectations. But that can be hard to do against an opponent like Western Kentucky that doesn't appear to be a real stiff test for the Big Red in Lincoln. So the question won't be whether Nebraska can or should beat the Hilltoppers, but by what margin.

In order to figure it out, look no further than TCU. The Horned Frogs finished 2009 as the sixth-ranked team in the country. Their opener came against a BCS school in Virginia that finished the prior season at 5-7. As sorry as that sounds, that's still better than a Western Kentucky squad that finished 0-12 in an even weaker conference. More importantly, that was a road game for TCU. The margin of victory in that game was 16 points, so you might consider that the bare minimum that the sixth ranked team ought to win by in an opener against a team like the Hilltoppers. And if the home field is worth 3 or 4 points, then the number you get for a home game in that case might rise to 23 points.

The very next weekend (after a week to make some improvements) TCU then went out and throttled Texas State at home by a margin of 56-21. But Texas State is an FCS school (i.e. Division I-AA). So as bad as Western Kentucky might be, Texas State might have been worse. So the 35-point margin could be seen as a bit high in terms of what ought to be expected from the sixth ranked team against the Hilltoppers.

SMU, TCU's week four opponent in 2009, might be the closest comparison. The Mustangs were coming off of a 1-11 season (with their only victory coming against Texas State, interestingly enough). The Horned Frogs triumphed 39-14 in Fort Worth, a 25-point margin. No, it's not a perfect comparison. The Mustangs had eked out a win the year before and had even managed two wins prior to their game with TCU. Still it paints a picture of what the score might look like if Nebraska truly is the sixth best team in the country.

There will be plenty to watch for in the first game, but a win by 25 points or more would probably indicate Nebraska is on track to live up to the high expectations for 2010.