The Big Grain of Salt
An example of why it is hard for fans to evaluate a recruit
Nebraska has a good amount of recruiting momentum going right now. And, as Steve pointed out yesterday, the Huskers recently landed another scholarship recruit, Nate Gerry. That's great. But, a news item about Gerry today provides a stark example of why it is almost impossible for the casual fan to evaluate the quality of a prospect. First, the casual fan is just that. Even the paid recruiting sites and evaluators pale in comparison to the amount of evaluation and review done by coaches. Next - and this is the real problem - the lack of reliable facts. I'll use Mr. Gerry as an example.
Let me first be clear about one thing. This post is not intended to be a knock on Nate Gerry. He's a Husker now. By the accounts I've read, he's a good athlete and football player. Fans can be glad that Nebraska was able to beat out Iowa, Michigan State and others for his services. But, beyond that, the casual fan doesn't know much. Here's why.
You can't teach speed and you can't teach size. Speed is important. So how fast is Gerry? Depends on what you read. Read this article. It's a feel good piece about Gerry picking NU. It's written by the local area sports columnist. Local is good, right? The closer somebody is to the subject the more reliable I tend to find them. Well, then I read this passage.
He has since increased his size and speed (10.39 in the 100 meters and 21.31 in the 200) to become a three-star recruit, and he envisions rising further as part of the Husker football tradition.
Track times are objective, right? They aren't as fluid as the oft-debated "star ratings" variable. Think again. Look more closely at the times the columnist cited. If those are accurate, then Nathan Gerry is faster than any kid to ever run high school track in Nebraska. I'm serious.
The Nebraska state high school record in the 100 is 10.6 seconds. That was set by Ronnie Doss. Doss was racing against Ahman Green in high school. Doss was faster than Ahman Green on the track. If Gerry's 10.39 time is legit, then he is significantly faster than Ahman Green over 100 meters. Sorry folks, no way.
So, I went and took a look at the South Dakota state meet times. Gerry ran an 11.00 second 100 meters to finish second at state this year. He won the 200 meters in a time of 21.83. That's really moving, but not a 21.3. For context, Kenzo Cotton won NE's meet at 21.77.
The point - Gerry is fast. But, he's not THAT fast. Therein lies the issue with almost everything a casual (or rabid) fan reads about any recruit. Even the most objective of measurements can be stretched by a recruiting site, a message board poster or even a well-intended columnist.
This applies almost universally. Jordan Westerkamp is a lot closer to 6' even than his self-reported height of 6'2''. Players often report to camp as college freshman a lot lighter than their reported weights. Remember the Internet legend that was Thunder Collins? That guy was unstoppable until he showed up as a skinny kid with good - not great - speed.
And, this has nothing to do with star ratings either. Those are the ultimate in subjectivity. Yes, good evaluators spend good time putting those together. But, they are based as much on 40-yard dash times and camp performances as they are on real production. And, those evaluators aren't looking for the same things that coaches are looking for. Finally, the actual margin between a 3-star and a 4-star player is just razor thin no matter how important it may be in the school's class ranking or in a fan's mind.
What can the average fan do when they are consuming news and information about recruits? Well, here's the list I use:
- Take every measurement with a grain of salt, especially speed.
- Value production above measurables. Yards beget yards. Tackles beget more tackles. Only catches prove that a player can catch. Touchdowns prove a player can score.
- Consider the competition, in both directions. Who did the player play against in high school? Who did Nebraska beat to get the player? (As my colleague Steve says, "If Oklahoma wants him, then we probably want him.")
- Finally, and this is the toughest one - trust the coaches. They are looking for very specific things and trying to fill needs on their team. It may even apply to (gasp!) a long snapper. The coaching staff does this for a living. They don't do insurance or food service or public relations. They do football. They are professionals and they want to win. Badly. Yes, even more badly than the fans. And, if they don't do it right, there will be losses and other consequences. Fans will just have to trust them, and cheer like crazy.
So, that's where I stand on evaluating recruits, up to and including the latest Husker addition. Sorry, Mr. Gerry. It's not a referendum on you, just on how fanciful we can get about talent. Now, if you will excuse me, I'm going to watch my six year old go run a 11.5 second 100 meters. You don't believe that she's that fast? Why not... you read it on the Internet.
6/20/2012
Reiterating that we are very happy Nate Gerry choose the Huskers and wish him well. 11.00 is FAST.
This article is about hype and you hit the nail on the head that the experts are the coaches. If they extend a scholarship that means they are putting their jobs on the line for a player. Especially less highlighted players like long snappers. I can only imagine how hard it is on the coaches when a player goes elsewhere or worse, changes a commitment. Jobs and families are on the line.
I think players like Cody Green pass the eye test even though the competition he had in high school was lacking. I recall the hit/miss ratio of recruits becoming starters is 30-40%. Does someone have that stat?
I wonder how many coaches are privileged enough on the Husker staff to know who the top prospects are they are trying hardest to land. What sort of sales training do the coaches get?
6/20/2012
I read that 10.39 and thought “damn that kid is fast.”
Then I read your corrected 11.0 and thought “wow, i was a lot faster than that kid.”
10.39 seconds wins you a D1 scholarship for the 100m ANYWHERE.
11.0 lets you place third in a half-decent Class A invitational meet.
MAYBE you could qualify for state.
BIG difference.
6/20/2012
Interesting side note:
I ran against Ahman Green 1 time in high school. He was a senior and I was a sophomore. He took off his warm-ups and his thighs were bigger than my waist.
I knew it was going to be a bad day.
Haha!
6/20/2012
An 11 second 100m equates to a 4.4 40m split. It would be faster in yards. That’s pretty darn fast.
6/21/2012
Good point Jeremy. Since Ahman Green has been mentioned lately I watched the 95 Huskers A Colorado game. Lot’s of players on that team from Nebraska and nearby states making plays. These guys get little exposure in high school and their ratings suffer because of it. Bo is right to keep these kids coming into to Lincoln.
6/21/2012
Jeremy, don’t discount the power of a running start on most of those splits.
6/21/2012
If I had to guess on how that 100m time would convert to a 40 yard time, he probably has something closer to 4.6 to 4.7 speed.
Certainly not slow, but not game-changing speed at the D1 level.
That said… the kid looks like he can ball.
NC, USA
6/21/2012
His best 100 time I could find was around 10.7. His best 200 time was around 21.7.
Nate Gerry was named MVP at the Nebraska Under Armor Combine…which shows he is a HELL of an Athlete.
I’m also going to let you know something. I ran a 10.9 in the 100 and ran a 22.0 in the 200 in high school. I also ran a 4.3 in the 40 yard dash.
So, even though I was slower than Gerry in the 100 and 200, I was faster than him in the 40 yard dash. Debating about 100 and 200 vs 40 is apples to oranges.
It’s obvious this kid is fast and can get moving…especially since I was 160lbs in high school at 5’7” and he is over 6’ and over 200lbs.
I’d say we’re getting a GREAT athlete that is being overlooked by many because he wants to play in the secondary.
6/21/2012
if you ran a 4.3 electronic 40 and only ran a 10.9 100m, you were really slow for that last 60 meters, dkdevine.
just messing with you.
really, though… back to the article.
Did Stu Whitney just pull that 10.39 100m time out of his ass?
How weird is that?
6/21/2012
Is there any way that Nebraska could hire a full time professional recruiter? I mean could Nebraska, if it wanted to, go out and scour the country and find a great ace recruiter and hire him to do that job only? Is there any NCAA rules that would prohibit that? Were simply not getting any of the top 150 guys, or top 5 guys at their position that we need in order to be an elite team again.
Washington did something kinda interesting last year…they hired away a top notch recruiter from Cal. Appearently the guy has a reputation as being an ace recruiter. Isn’t that what we need…an ace recruiter? Not a coach whose duties also include recruiting coordinator, or a head coach who doesn’t seem to have the ability to pursuade the upper echelon recruits to join him. That’s not going to cut it in todays world of recruiting where we are a million miles away from any recruiting hotbeds and recruits want to go where all the other best players go. How long will we have to put up with relying on 3 star guys with high ceilings, hoping they become big stars as opposed to high 4 or 5 star guys coming in who can really do it all? In 4 years, Bo has brought us exactly one class that was in the top 20. One. That’s not going to cut it. Recruiting is the life blood of any program. If we want to be where every living breathing soul in the state of Nebraska wants us to be, in the hunt for the top prize, we need to be recruiting in the top 10 to 15 in terms of recruiting classes year in and year out.
You can’t look back and say “well, Tom Osborne was able to recruit great athletes, why can’t we do the same thing now”?
Because the landscape has changed in college football. Drastically. And we need to change now too. It was a different time then and recruiting wasn’t what it is now. There were fewer power programs back then and we were the big dogs. Frankly, we’re not anymore.
So, how do we get back to playing with the big boys? Start recruiting with the big boys. We have to find a way. We’re behind the curve now and are being out recruited by the likes of Vanderbuilt! If they don’t pick it up pretty soon, we could very well have to be pleased with beating Iowa every year.