Should Kansas State be the North Favorite?

We've reached the point in the offseason where we as NU fans really begin to explore the competition. We know our team about as well as we're going to before August, so what about the other teams Nebraska will face? We anxiously await the college football magazines, like Phil Steele's, to give us the skinny and some predictions. In the meantime, we have lesser sources to rely on - like student newspapers for example.

The KSU rag got some attention this past week for declaring that Kansas State will win the Big 12 North. That seems far-fetched given that the Wildcats didn't even reach bowl eligibility a year ago. Not making a bowl game is the college football equivalent of not making the NBA playoffs - where you can lose 41 games and still play in the post-season. Only one team in fourteen years of Big 12 play ever won their division in the Big 12 after failing to make a bowl game the prior season. If those odds hold, that would give Kansas State less than a four percent chance of pulling off the feat. But putting aside that initial reaction, might their be reasons to like the Wildcats this Fall?

The K-State article pointed to the return of running back Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's leading rusher a year ago. Ask an Oklahoma State fan how much it helped to have Kendall Hunter back last year or Missouri how much it helped to have Derrick Washington (the Big 12 North's leading rusher in 2008). Heck, Oklahoma couldn't get by Texas in 2005 the year after Adrian Peterson exploded for over 1,900 yards. And Daniel Thomas is no Adrian Peterson.

Then the article points to new starting quarterback Carson Coffman and cites his Spring game performance. Anyone remember Joe Dailey's record-setting Spring game? 'Nuff said there.

The article mentions a newcomer at wide receiver, Brodrick Smith who transferred from Minnesota. Sure we've seen a player like Maurice Purify come in to help nudge Nebraska to a division title in 2006. But Purify was a five star recruit. Smith wasn't regarded nearly as highly, and his transfer came after tallying fifty yards total the prior season. The article predicted he would post 800 yards for the 2010 season. You don't need to be an oddsmaker to know that UNDER is the pick you want there.

As the saying goes, you can schedule more wins than you can coach. And you can look at the Kansas State schedule and say there are some favorable aspects to it. For example, the Wildcats host Nebraska on Thursday night. Of course, the Huskers had a similar matchup against Missouri a year ago. While the game was dramatic, Nebraska ultimately won by fifteen points. And that Missouri squad was a two-time defending division champion, with the aforementioned Derrick Washington at running back. If anything, that bit of scheduling keeps the Huskers from overlooking the Wildcats as they will have a week and a half to prepare for the game. NU will almost have had two and a half weeks off when you consider that the Huskers last opponent before that date will be South Dakota State.

K-State fans will remind you that the Wildcats were just one win from winning the division a year ago. They outyarded Nebraska in the 17-3 loss in Lincoln in November. But they also finished the season with two straight losses to division opponents (the other being a bad home loss to Missouri). Will Kansas State finish closer to the top of the Big 12 North standings than the bottom? Sure. Kansas, Colorado and Iowa State will probably finish behind them. But are they the favorite? That seems like a stretch, no matter how you look at it.