My Clemson Nightmare: Why Nebraska Could Lose

I'm not posting this because I want the Husker's to lose. It's just the opposite. I almost want it too much. Winning the Gator bowl and getting to nine wins would be a fantastic way to cap the season and set NU up with real momentum for 2009. I'm writing this because deep in my gut I have a fear that the Huskers could very easily lose this ball game...maybe even get gutted by Clemson. This is the kind of thing that keeps me up at night, I guess. That, and too much coffee. I suppose you want some rational reason why the Huskers could get run on January 1. So, I'll offer them.

Expectations, Preparation, Momentum
While the odds makers and national pundits are very evenly spilt in their predictions, I have to think that most put higher expectations on 8-4 NU than they do on 7-5 Clemson, who got a bit of a surprising nod over FSU for the Gator Bowl birth. Don't get it twisted, the Tigers can play. Steve saw this coming a while ago. So, the higher expectations hardly favor NU. The Huskers actually play a lot better when there is less on the line.

According to just about every coach under the sun, preparation is the biggest X factor in any bowl outcome. You just never know what you are going to get. I honestly believe this is where NU's being so "multiple" (read - doing lots and lots of different things) actually hurts it quite a bit. I also can't help but acknowledge the possible distraction that comes with the passing of Bo and Carl Pelini's father. Sure, it could focus kids to play for their coach. It also migt make them press, or try too hard. Mistakes are born of this mentality. That's just a hard truth. Look at all of the whacky plays in the first quarter in football's big games as evidence, if you must.

The Tigers have serious momentum. This is not the same team that opened the season so poorly. Yes, I know the Huskers have positive energy too. But, I would not say the Huskers played their best ball to end the season against Colorado. Of course, the finish to that game was awesome. But, looking at the game objectively, it was hardly a complete effort on both sides of the ball.

And while NU has Bo, the Tigers have Dabo. Just Google the guy and read the news stories. Dude makes the Legend of Bo Pelini sound tame. And, he was a member of the 1992 Alabama title team. Personal bias - but I have massive amounts of respect (and yes, fear) for anyone associated with that team. They were brutal and awesome to watch. Gives me shivers. And Dabo is descended from that on some level.

Doesn't D Trump O?
Nobody can stop talking about the vaunted Husker offense. Don't get me wrong, I love that NU scores 36 a game and holds the ball for huge stretches of the time. It's like a metronome at times...almost addictive in its consistency. But wait a second. The Tigers have the one of the best defenses (statistically) in the country. Honestly, take the names off of the helmets and tell me which one you would rather have, a defense or an offense. That's what I thought.

You can say the Tiger defense is just good statistically, that it is a "paper Tiger" that feasted on the weak ACC. Well, don't you have to admit that the same is at least somewhat true about NU's offense. Or are KSU, ISU CU, and Kansas really so good on defense? Pardon the skepticism, but I'll take a D any day.

Matchup Nightmares
Okay, now lets really look at the football elements of this game. I think Clemson's total talent quotient is higher. And bowls happen in this sort of weird area apart from the season. In that case, I believe talent takes over and dictates outcomes more. Football is about match ups. And, I don't think the Huskers match up very well with Clemson. I just don't.

Up front, I rather like the NU defensive line and their opportunity to generate sacks and bottle up the run game. But, with big-play backs and receivers, it only takes one play to do the damage. NU's back seven on defense has been leaky all year.

Tiger running back CJ Spiller is fast (dot com!). What about NU's history at linebacker this season makes you think that he wouldn't be able to take a wheel route out of the backfield and just blow the doors off of Tyler Wortman and company? Clemson's flanker Jacoby Ford has a penchant for gutting teams with big plays.That's exactly what NU's safeties have given up all year. If Colorado can do it, why can't Clemson?

For the Husker offense, it might be just as bad. The Clemson secondary has feasted on interceptions this year. They are ball hawks. My counterpart Brandon happily offered up Joe Ganz as a Nebraska advantage. I disagree. Don't get me wrong. I love Joe Ganz. But he is what he is. He's thrown 10 interceptions this year. When he presses too hard, he makes mistakes. When he turns it over, the Huskers lose.

Another problem for the NU offense is that the Tigers have very stout defensive tackles, the kind of players that our interior linemen have had a hard time moving out all year. They also have solid play from their middle linebacker and strong safety. It might be a recipe to stuff the NU run and force NU to throw. When that happens...well, you know.

Shaky Conference Confidence
Since this match up was announced, everyone has talked about the strong Big 12 versus the weak ACC. Again, don't let that thought fill your head. Did you watch the Alamo and Holiday Bowls? Not so good, Big 12. And, Florida State and Maryland of the ACC handled their business. I am not saying the ACC is better than the Big 12, top to bottom. I'm just saying that it's probably a lot more even than some folks would care to believe.

Small in Big Spots
This is the point that hurts me most. The Huskers have come up very small in their biggest games this year. When the lights and camera are there, NU hasn't shown much action. They got handled by Virginia Tech for 3 quarters before furiously fighting to the end. Missouri and Oklahoma rolled the Huskers on national TV. True, NU got after Texas Tech very well. But, that was in a game where expectations were very low for NU. And, didn't I open this post talking about the advantage of low expectations?

The root of my nightmare is that the Huskers play to their habit of being a slow starter or shrinking in the spotlight, Clemson jumps them early with speed, speed, and more speed, and the game is over before it can begin. It would be like reliving the OU game with garish purple and orange colors. Yikes.

I don't wish for any of these things to be right. The Huskers getting run over in the Gator Bowl is the stuff of nightmares, really and truly. But that doesn't mean it can't happen. Did NU learn the lesson of their history this season? I can only hope, otherwise replaying the game in my mind will only lead to even less sleep.