Missouri v. Northwestern: Expectations Gone Awry
Valero Alamo Bowl, Missouri @ Northwestern, San Antonio Alamodome, Dec. 29, 8 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
2008 was supposed to be Missouri's year. Fans, players, coaches all thought that the Tigers were going to be in the hunt for a National Championship very late into the game. Their hopes for a title game shot were pretty much dashed after their second loss in as many weeks to Texas. Northwestern was pretty much the exact opposite. They were not expected to make any kind of impact, but being ranked in the top 25 and in a bowl game was beyond their hopes at the beginning of the season.
Looking at the numbers, it's not hard to see why Missouri is so highly thought of. Chase Daniel is one of the top 5 quarterbacks in the country while Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin are two of the top targets. Missouri's passing attack has yielded 340 yards/game this year, good enough for 4th in the country. It's the major component of their 43 points/game average. Their efficiency with the football is striking. They are 5th in the NCAA in 3rd downs at 54%. The Tigers are also rarely penalized, with only 52 this whole year. The only dark spot on offense is the 15 interceptions – one of the key components in their losses.
On the defensive side of the ball, it's like looking at a different team. Their rush defense isn't bad, holding teams to 128 yards/game, but they allow 285 through the air – one of the worst in the NCAA. The total defense amounts to number 99 in the NCAA. This has been the Achilles heel for the Tigers this year. If they had just one more impact player on this side of the ball, we'd be talking about a difference tier of bowl games for MU.
Northwestern is an interesting story. When you look at the numbers, you ask how they are ranked. They don't have any major impact players that crack the top 25 in their respective statistical category. Their total offense is a mediocre 357 yards/game and their passing efficiency is one of the worst in the country. The Wildcats are averaging 24 points/game. They have a pretty bad turnover margin with 22 gained and 27 lost.
The story is on defense for Northwestern. They are only allowing 19 points/game and held opponents to only 11 passing touchdowns this year. Their defense is holding teams to 33% on third downs. The pressure is there, too, with 82 tackles for loss and 33 sacks this season.
Despite all of that, this is a game that Missouri should be able to pull away with. I don't think Northwestern has faced such an efficient offense all year. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they couldn't really hang with the Tigers in the second half of the game. The Wildcats will likely be downed 41-27.
12/29/2008
MU this year sort of reminds me of KSU in 1998. I was *supposed* to be their year. Instead, to the Alamo…
KSU was flat flat flat and dropped that game to Purdue (Ah, a young Drew Brees…nice). With MU’s problems being on D, this might be a close game if they also come out flat.
Or Chase and company take out their frustrations on the Cats the way NU did the last time they played Northwestern. U-g-l-y.
12/29/2008
The sense of entitlement smacked in Columbia. From beginning to the end. Last year it could be turned into a positive before the Cotton Bowl. The chip on the shoulder from not going to a BCS bowl could be used to motivate a group who had obtained spectacular achievement to that point in their season. It’s a bit easier when you have a core group of seniors, who had been through the rigours of a college career, experienced, battle-tested AND the additional element of surprise from opponents, and the performance of the 2007 season is a beyond likely outcome. When people are EXPECTING you to be good, and you have the target on your back, well that’s when you really have to fight to maintain your ascendancy. Don’t get me wrong, Missouri is here to stay in the North, but what they learned in Columbia this year is that when EVERYONE has you circled, things change, the pressure turns up, and you have to do what you did before to get you there, even better. . .
The Oklahoma State game (before kickoff and especially afterwards) showed this to me. Going into a game where they hadn’t punted the ball, they had to fight. No, they didn’t back down, but they didn’t respond well to being challenged and having to fight play-for-play. Texas just physically intimidated them, as did Oklahoma. Just because you made it to the top, it’s a lot tougher to stay there. The work ethic to stay on top, and the element of mental toughness are the final missing elements for Missouri to maintain their status as the (for now at least) Big 12 North’s best team. . .
12/29/2008
James Moore…........
Bingo! You nailed it. Learning how to stay on top is a whole new game for the Columbia Kitties.
We could know soon if Mizzou’s 15 minutes are up.
Gotta pack for Florida…......C’ya soon!
GBR!
Bob
12/29/2008
Mizzou’s offense looks terrible tonight. Chase Daniel is really off but I don’t think the O coordinator is helping much. I’m really not too impressed with Northwestern athletically but they do have some grit. Reminds me of Kansas a bit. That’s the way to represent the conference…
12/29/2008
I was a little torn tonight, wanting the Big 12 to win over a Big 10 team, but let’s just say I would not have been too sad to see Mizzou go down. In the end, I am happy, the Big 12 got a win over the Big 10 and Chase D. went out with a terrible game including 3 interceptions. What is interesting is that this game is the first in deciding whether the Big 12 offenses are really that good or whether the Big 12 just doesn’t play good defense. I think tonight’s game argues that just maybe the Big 12 can’t play defense, or then again maybe Chase D. was just having an off night.
Kansas City, MO
12/30/2008
I can understand being a little off. The last time they played in that stadium they blew their shot at a national title game. Maybe they were a little nervous.
12/30/2008
Chase doesn’t get nervous…he just cocks his hat to the left and chews his gum faster. :)
12/30/2008
Can anyone explain to me why Chase Daniel’s family gets so much camera time from ESPN? We counted 12 separate shots of his family in OT alone. I remember it being that way when we played them as well. Bradford’s family didn’t get that much face time when we played them, and he’s the Heisman winner. What gives?
12/30/2008
Andy,
A good looking mom & sister/girlfriend? The best camera work by far is when the two blonde twins at Alabama home games get camera time, complete with Houndstooth hat and sex appeal!!! Speaking of camera work does Erin Andrews EVER get enough time on air?
12/31/2008
Hey Andy,
NU vs. Miami in the Orange Bowl….Brook Berringer’s family got multiple shots from ESPN at that time.