Is the Hoker Going to be the Next Coker?
Brady Hoke in his first year as Michigan's head coach had as good a season in 2011 as you could hope for. His team won 11 games and a BCS bowl. This season, his team is considered a favorite to win the Big Ten. Even though the team overall has looked strong, you wonder what things might be like for the Wolverines after Denard Robinson graduates. Larry Coker came on strong initially as coach of the Miami Hurricanes, winning the national championship in his first season with the players that he inherited. Things didn't go quite so well in the years that followed. Is Hoke in danger of seeing the same thing happen to his team?
Coo Coo Ca-choo Mr. Robinson
The big question about Michigan's performance thus far under Hoke is where the team might have been without Robinson. He accounted for five touchdowns running and passing in the miraculous comeback win against Notre Dame. He kept the game against San Diego State from getting too close with 200 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. He paired a 337-yard passing day with 117 yards rushing and four touchdowns at Northwestern. His 82% passing, 170 yards rushing and five touchdowns against Ohio State were critical to getting his team to the Sugar Bowl. Likewise, he accounted for Michigan's only two touchdowns in the overtime win against Virginia Tech. Without Robinson, you could have been talking about a six or seven win team. That might have been sufficient for a coach in the first year of a rebuilding project, but how easy is it to replicate without a player of Robinson's caliber?
Who's Next?
The top reserves behind Robinson are technically dual-threat quarterbacks. So far, neither has shown anywhere near Robinson's explosiveness as a runner. Devin Gardner was a highly rated recruit out of high school and appears to be in line to succeed Robinson as the starter. Gardner's netted just 53 rushing yards on 25 carries in 2011 and completed less than 48% of his passes with one touchdown and one interception. His build reminds you of Cody Green. Unfortunately for Michigan, so far his play does too. Russell Bellomy hasn't seen the field yet for Michigan and was more lightly regarded out of high school than Gardner. Pro-style quarterback prospect Shane Morris has committed to the class of 2013 and might represent the future prototype at Michigan. You can get Barry Switzer's opinion on immobile quarterbacks right here. Let's just say he's not a fan.
Urban Legend
Michigan coaches are often judged based on their performance against Ohio State. The hire of Urban Meyer in Columbus makes that annual showdown a lot tougher. Braxton Miller, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback and younger player than Robinson, also makes that a tall order. As for OSU's long-term strategy at the quarterback position? It's fair to say that Switzer would approve. The same can be said for Nebraska's strategy behind center.
Hoke could match or exceed last year's win total in 2012, but if his team drops back to seven-win territory in the years that follow, his days will be numbered. Coker won a national championship his first season and just missed another in year two. Things regressed noticeably (but not horribly) in the three seasons that followed. By his sixth season his team had fallen to 6-6 and a bid to the MPC Computers Bowl (predecessor to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Could Hoke be headed down a similar path? It's not hard to see things cool once Robinson departs. Whether he can replace the kind of production that Robinson provides will be the million dollar question. Otherwise, a TicketCity Bowl bid could be his ticket out of Ann Arbor.
6/14/2012
Coach Hoke set a very high bar last year and exceeded expectations. He does not have that luxury this year. Coach Coker is an excellent comparison. I think Stoops is another. I think he fell into a very good team recruited by Blake and has been given a long leash that Hoke may also enjoy.
6/14/2012
Having watched Michigan up-close for years, don’t expect Hoke to go the way of Coker, primarily because of the assistant coaches Hoke has hired and his emphasis on technique. Talent + technique = lots of Michigan wins in the years to come. Most impressive last year was how the coaches went in with a plan to change Robinson into more of a pocket passer, but after summer ball they adjusted their strategies to match their players’ skills.
payson, utah
6/18/2012
Coker was coaching a very undisciplined team. After that loss to ohio state in the NC game, they were never the same. The offense just got worse and worse even with top recruits.
Hoke is a proven winner and he’s done it with disciplline and by surrounding himself with great assistants. If he keeps al borges and greg mattinson around, I think they will be one of the best teams in the country, even without robinson.
6/24/2012
As Grady and UT_Husker pointed out, Hoke has some of the best coordinators in the business, and he runs a tight ship. He is also cleaning up in the recruiting department, and not just getting top recruits, but filling needs.
You are right, though, Michigan is thin at QB. There are only 3 scholarship QB’s on the team for this coming year. But Gardner should get granted a RS year, meaning he will have two left after Robinson leaves, and he is definitely a threat to run the ball. Also, just because a QB is listed as pro style doesn’t necessarily mean he’s immobile. Shane Morris is no where near the threat to run as a Denard Robinson or Taylor Martinez, but if you watch his HS highlights, he can move on the ground.
In short, Michigan seems poised to be as good or better in the future than they are right now.