Huskers, Fans Should Not Concede Defeat
I love to look at point spreads as a reality check leading up to a game. Are my own expectations in line with what the betting public thinks? Is one team a big favorite over the other? It's still an imperfect metric, though. Think of Alabama at Georgia, the betting public would say Georgia should have been the favorite. We saw how that turned out. But some of these unbiased computer models would have done a better job than the betting line.
The eleven point edge for Missouri from Vegas for this Saturday's game probably didn't jump out to most people as unreasonable on the high or low side given the performance of these two programs over the last year and change. But interestingly, Sagarin's predictor ratings would actually make the Huskers a 4 point favorite this weekend based on little more than the two teams performance to date (any carryover from last season which is also part of the ratings, only helps Mizzou).
Why might that be?
Missouri's “glamor� victory came against Illinois, an outing where the Tigers gave up 42 points. On the season, Illinois lost to Missouri and by two touchdowns to Penn State 38-24. The Fighting Illini barely squeaked by Louisiana-Lafayette in Champaign 20-17 but did handle Eastern Illinois fairly easily. On paper, Illinois is looking like a lightweight and not that good offensively. The Tigers made them look like an offensive juggernaut.
The Tigers trounced SE Missouri State and Nevada but remember what the Huskers did to Nevada a year ago? The computer, evidently is not impressed. While a 42-21 win over Buffalo shouldn't hurt the cause of Missouri, Central Michigan yielded only 25 points and Pitt 16 to Buffalo, which again makes the Tiger defense look weak. We always hear that defense wins championships, and yet bettors may be getting overly enamored with the Tigers offensive output.
What about Nebraska's resume? Throw out San Jose State and New Mexico State. Lopsided scores against those teams probably don't help much (though New Mexico State did beat a UTEP team that trounced Central Florida). Western Michigan doesn't seem like much, but they are 4-1 which is more than you can say about any Missouri opponent. And computers like teams that win.
That brings us to Virginia Tech, another 4-1 opponent. While the Huskers took a loss in the standings, the computer actually gained respect for Nebraska. And truthfully, didn't most of us watching the game feel the same way? The computer LOVES the Hokies. Sure they lost to East Carolina, but that ECU team is 3-2 with a win over West Virginia. The computer loves Georgia Tech (another V-Tech victim) even more than the Hokies. That's because the Yellow Jackets went into Boston College and won and trounced a Mississippi State team that was only one point worse than Auburn and ten points worse than LSU. The Hokies also beat a 3-1 North Carolina team that won at Miami and smoked Rutgers on the road.
Putting aside mostly what happened a year ago, which team has proven more? The Huskers have played a tougher schedule and very nearly survived it unbeaten. I'm not saying that the Sagarin predictor ratings are the ultimate measure of one team against another. But it does give you enough pause not to just say, “Nebraska can't beat Missouri� as if it's a foregone conclusion. This is a new year, this is a new staff, and this is a team with a new attitude.
I'm not calling for an outright Husker victory, but neither am I going to just join the legions ready to hand the game to Missouri. The Tigers haven't won in Lincoln in 30 years. Maclin is a scary return threat, but the Huskers have had two guys take kicks back for touchdowns as well. How good are those Tigers going to be at covering kicks against NU? I'm doubtful they are as good as Virginia Tech in that area and we saw what Nate Swift did. Missouri has gotten decent production in their running game, but how good are they at stopping it? Chase Daniel is mobile. And Joe Ganz isn't? The differences aren't as big as you'd think.
Don't write off your Huskers, Big Red Fans! This is a game they can win.
10/1/2008
Tempered optimism is a thing of beauty, and this is it. Great article! I can see our team continue to fight just like we did when we were down vs VT…I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I’ll be right there on saturday to cheer and make sure that MU earns every inch they get. GO BIG RED!
10/1/2008
Along with the fact that Missouri has only played Illinois and the super cupcakes, this will be the first trip to Lincoln for young guys like Maclin. I guarantee that nothing he has seen or anything anybody tells him will prepare him for the actual game atmosphere in Memorial Stadium on Saturdays! Go Big Upset!
10/1/2008
Nice try, but lay off the red kool-aid. The team beat you by 35 last year. They are unreal on offense and have ten starters back on a defense that gave you six points. Plus, you’re in the first year of a new system. The Sea of Red is nice and all, but there’s a reason Chase is leading the Heisman race and the team is 3rd in the nation.
Also, comparing Swift to Maclin is literally comparing college ball to the NFL. Fun on paper, but completely two different leagues. Dream on.
10/1/2008
Ethan,
Here’s the problem with the logic that 2007 is the all-important variable for 2008. Wouldn’t that have meant that in 2007, 2006 was all important? Yet the Huskers won pretty easily at home in 2006 and a year later they got crushed by Missouri. There’s no apparent correlation AT ALL between those two outcomes. If anything, it makes it appear that playing at home is EVERYTHING.
Here’s what those 10 returning starters on defense have produced so far for the Tigers. Missouri is last in the Big 12 in passing defense, next to last in pass efficiency defense, last in total defense, and sixth in scoring defense. And despite your scientific metaphor about Maclin and Swift, the Huskers have actually gotten more out the return game this year (both punts and kicks). All of this is magnified by the fact that the Huskers have played the toughest schedule to date in the conference and Missouri’s a middling 5th toughest.
Also, nothing you’ve said manages to explain why Sagarin’s predictor ratings rank Nebraska HIGHER than Missouri this year.
10/1/2008
Considering what Maclin and Company did last year I don’t think Memorial Stadium will be too intimidating of a place for them to perform.
I’m hoping for an upset, but if we perform like last week I think MU will score a few more TD’s instead of FG’s and that could make for a long night.
NU needs to play perfect, win the field position battle, force some turnovers, and convert those TO’s into points.
Chicago, IL
10/1/2008
Steve, to your point, the home team has won in each of the last six meetings.
So it appears home field counts for something. Let’s hope it’s enough.
Kansas City, MO
10/1/2008
We played like we did (somewhat poorly and mistake-prone) and still almost stole the game from Virginia Tech. I don’t anticipate the same decline in performance that we saw in the Huskers’ this week last year. If we manage to actually come out of the gate ready to play in the first quarter, this will be a game that you’ll want to watch into the fourth.