Despite the Loss, is Nebraska Back?
Usually I go into a game week writing about the upcoming game for Nebraska. This week in particular, I expected to write about how the Huskers needed to be looking forward rather than backward, because they'd be playing a team with more wins over Big 12 conference teams this year than Nebraska. To get a sense of how the two teams match-up, I often take a look at the Sagarin ratings that come out weekly. Sagarin computes ratings in two ways. One is the "politically correct" rating system, favored by the BCS (called "ELO-Chess"), which looks only at wins and losses (and where a game is played) to discourage running up the score. The other looks at margin of victory (and where the game is played) and is the best predictor of future games and scores. I've been using the latter (called "the Predictor") to dominate my college pick 'em league this year where we pick a bunch of college games against the point spread.
I knew Nebraska would climb in the Predictor rankings this week (despite the heartbreaking loss) because they covered the point spread (even the one implied by the Predictor) a week ago. What I didn't realize was by how much. The Predictor now puts Nebraska at third in the country. You read that right, third behind Florida State and Oklahoma. Louisiana-Lafayette, by contrast is ranked 127th in the Predictor ratings, and the ratings say they should be nearly a five touchdown underdog to Nebraska going into next week. Of course, the Predictor isn't perfect. It was on the wrong side of Oregon State (+1), BYU (-7.5), Duke (+22.5), Fresno St. (+7.5), and Louisana-Lafayette (+27), Still, it was on the right side of a lot of games too, like Nebraska (+5), Washington (+18.5), North Carolina (-7.5), Ohio State (-20.5), Temple (+29.5), Michigan (-24), Oregon (-4.5), Oklahoma (-17.5), Tennessee (+29.5), Georgia (+1), Texas Tech +17.5), and Rice (+32.5).
ELO-Chess tells a very different story. It rates Louisiana-Lafayette as twenty-second nationally and Nebraska seventy-seventh. The KSU win and LSU loss are better than NU's wins and the Virginia Tech loss, evidently (though both polls also still include information from 2008). It might make Louisiana-Lafayette a ten-point favorite this week. Of course, this is the poll that doesn't look at scores. It would have the same ranking whether the Ragin' Cajuns lost by four touchdowns to LSU (as they did) or by 1 point in overtime. Likewise, Nebraska could have lost by seventy to Virginia Tech, versus a single point and would get the same ranking. Does anybody expect the betting lines this week to make the Cajuns the favorite?
If Sagarin combines the two rankings, he has Nebraska fortieth and Louisiana-Lafayette seventy-sixth and NU as a ten-point favorite. I'd expect betting lines closer to that 34 point number. The wisdom of the betting public in that case, would most closely mirror the Predictor ratings. Despite the loss, if the Huskers continue to play the way they have, the Predictor would have them winning their next nine straight, including the home date against Oklahoma. That's not to say they will. Recall the five upsets I mentioned above. What it does say, is that our takeaway from last Saturday isn't that Nebraska's worse than most people thought - they're better. Maybe a LOT better.
Regardless, the Huskers still need to work hard in practice this week and stay focused. There are no weeks off anymore in college football. Any team that's beaten a Big 12 team, deserves your full attention. But the players shouldn't get down on themselves, nor should the fans get down on the players or coaches. We wanted this past weekend to show that Nebraska was back. An unbiased look at the data, says they are. Go Big Red.
9/21/2009
Nebraska appears to be on its way to the top tier again, and things are definitely better than during the Callahan era, but no, they’re not back yet. If Nebraska was truly back, they would’ve won.
This premature optimism has happened before. In Callahan’s second year, folks were very encouraged following a very close loss to Texas, another game they probably should’ve won. That year’s team was pretty good, but we all know what happened after that. A program of Nebraska’s stature should be above moral victories.
Maybe it’s been so long that we’ve forgotten, but vintage NU teams would’ve crushed this Virginia Tech squad, which isn’t exactly a vintage Hokies outfit, either. While no team is above losing, elite teams usually don’t lose because of the self-destruction displayed in Saturday’s game.
Before we declare NU back, we have to ask whether they could beat Florida, USC, Texas or OU. If the answer is no, then no, they’re not back. In my opinion, the only true measuring stick is whether you can beat the other great teams. Nebraska is getting closer to that, but they’re not there yet.
9/21/2009
Bill—
Problem is, Nebraska could and would beat all of the teams you mentioned, sans Florida, right now. Oklahoma is rather pedestrian this year, USC got beat by a Washington team that is better than last year but still isn’t Top 25 material, and Texas looked very, VERY average against a very mediocre Tech team. And if you want to go with a current Top 25, I think we would hand Ole Miss their keester on a silver platter as well.
The question isn’t whether or not we can beat those teams—we have the kids and coaching to do it now. The question is whether or not the kids have enough confidence in themselves to do it. Virginia Tech showed me that these kids may still have some baggage rattling around up in their skulls yet, as by all rights we should had blown VTech out of the water if it weren’t for our own miscues.
That’s what Bo will focus on, and that’s why I think Bo was so frustrated at the end of the VTech game—he knows we have the talent now to kick V. Tech up and down the block and flashes of that talent were shown Saturday—but in the end, all we did was kick ourselves. If he can get these kids back on track mentally, the Big XII is ours.
Not the North—the entire Big XII.
9/21/2009
Great perspective Matt,
There is no doubt that we have the talent to beat good teams. What we need to do now is learn from this loss, Put it all together and go get it done!
10.08.09! GBR!!!
9/21/2009
While I agree with some of the comments, I do not agree that TT is mediocre. If NU can’t disrupt their timing patterns it could be a long night. I do agree it seems to be a mental thing and not from just the players either. 4th and 1. Make it and the game is over, period. Miss it and they still had a long field. Apparently the coaches don’t have the confidence in the offense to get that one yard. What does that tell you? Helu had minus yards on only one carry which was an early pitch by Lee on an option play when Lee never made a defender commit towards him. With all the big bodies on this team you think they could find one with good hands and the aggressiveness to carry it for the short yard situations. Refrigerator Perry comes to mind. I don’t want to overwork the D line, but have Crick block for Suh. Whose going to stop that frieght train? This team and their coaches must find the killer instinct to go for the win and not defend from losing. I understand their playing the percentages to make VT go the distance, but it takes the ball out of your hands.
I’ll take no pride in a win or even a beatdown of ULL on Saturday. Their next opportunity to move the program ahead comes in Columbia.
I’m getting mad as hell all over again. It’s more than just a game dammit!
GBR!
9/21/2009
WyHuskerFan—don’t get mad as hell over Mizzou’s recent success. Frankly, considering how bad we own them in the overall scheme of things, it was about time they reversed course to some degree.
As for the 4th and 1 call…we would be setting VTech up with excellent field position and they would only need to get 20-30 yards to try a field goal to win. Bo made the right call—remember, we’ve gotten on Bo for having too big of balls (fake field goal vs. Colorado last year), so we can’t have it both ways.
IMO, Bo made the right call, and the only thing I could fault the coaching staff with was the lack of Rex Burkhead to spell Helu during the game. Gameplan was solid—kids just misfired mentally.
9/21/2009
Matt, I’m not mad over Mizzou’s success. I don’t give a flip about Mizzou except the week we beat them like a homely red-headed stepchild in their own house. Remember VT needed a TD. Field goal did them no good, so they had to go the distance regardless. Fake field goal against CU was before halftime when the game wasn’t on the line. My point was to have the moxy to shove it down the opponents throat. It’s 4 and 1, the game’s on the line and you can’t stop us. We know it and you know it. When we get to that point, we’re back.
GBR!
9/21/2009
Matt,
The only problem with your theory of Nebraska beating all of theteams that Bill mentioned is that they are all in the top 25.
Nebraska is 1-21 in their last 22 meetings with top 25 teams. Why would you think that Nebraska could and would beat those teams with that type of record?
Nebraska plays an abnormal amount of home games, compared to a lot of other teams, which might explain the problem with playing and finishing against quality opponents.
I watched that game and it looked like a game played in slow motion.
Pedestrian is a term you use to describe OU. They are playing pretty well offensively/defensively since Bradford went down, and he will be back.
9/21/2009
Blame the coaches…including Bo!!! Vanilla & conservative play-calling! Leaving Lee in too long (bad day)! Playing Hulu too much (needed a break)! Not going for 4th in 1!!! Not having your defensive backs properly placed and schooled in keeping receivers in front of you in the most critical time of the game! All in all, the defense played too great a game to have it taken away by “vanilla & conservative” coaching!!!!! Boogie
9/21/2009
Boogie, most teams play vanilla on the road in hostile environments. Too difficult to call audibles, especially if the game is close. Crowd definately affected the Huskers in Blacksburg, especially on the 1 and goal from the 6 after the holding call negated the TD. The place went nuts. I could hear the difference in high definition. Awesome fans! Really helped their team.
Would you want them to bring in a true freshman in that situation? Lee may only have two games under his belt, but that’s two more than Green. I would like to see him line up just to confuse the defensive. He’s a good receiver and a big body who can get yards after contact. They need to get him on the field. I agree Roy needed a break. Time for the backups to step up so the coaches don’t hesitate to put them in.
We’ll need them somewhere along the road when it matters.
Umquam porro (ever forward) GBR!
9/21/2009
Steve,
I admire your analytical ability and your statistical emphasis. It’s a unique way to consider a sort of tired question (are we back?)
To confirm the thoughts, I offer this “gut” reaction - YES. Everything about Saturday - excluding the excruciating outcome - tells me Nebraska is capable of playing with just about anyone and in a tough environment.
When was the last time any of us could say that confidently? For me personally, it goes back to the ‘01 season and the Rose Bowl, seriously.
I used to just say…“Gosh, I just hope they PLAY well, and we’ll take our chances from there”. Because frankly, they didn’t play well in those situations in the last 8 years. Do I have to drag out the horror stories?
Saturday, NU played well, and well enough to win. They went toe-to-toe and stood in there. And, that means everything. NU can play with anyone again. Anyone.
Does the loss sting? Absolutely. They all do, and losing one they *should* have won really sucks. But, it’s better than not showing up, getting drubbed, and waking up the next morning with proof that NU didn’t really belong on the field.
Losing close stings, but at least it is real. Losing ugly leaves you feeling hollow.
9/21/2009
I’d say that the Blackshirts are back, well at least 85 - 90% back. Despite losing the game. Alabama (D) gave up 17 points to VT. So we have to give the Husker defense some respect.
What’s that ol’ saying Championship teams must be able to run the ball when it counts the most.
Last couples of years Missouri had their bye week before playing the Huskers. And they still have a day on us in preparation.
9/21/2009
44 year Big 8-Big 12 fan here. Nebraska is not back. Back means scoring touchdowns. No cataclysmic imbecile breakdown on 1st and 90 with one minute left. Not throwing to a wide open receiver taking him out of bounds instead of the endzone in a close game. MU is ‘back’ to going to bowl games. KU is ‘there’ finally, having a run of winning seasons and 2 bowls in a row for the FIRST TIME EVER!Nebraska back is perennial top ten. Sorry, not close, not soon.
9/21/2009
I think we need a working definition of what “back” means exactly. Does back mean winning seasons? Going to bowl games? Conference championships? The national title hunt?
Speaking for myself, Nebraska will be back when it’s in the mix for the national title again. That’s why Osborne hired Pelini. Not merely to go the distance against top opponents or to not get blown out, but to beat the big boys and play for the highest stakes.
A close loss is not a win, folks, and Nebraska should—rather, it must—hold itself to a higher standard than that. Fans also said the Huskers were back after Callahan almost beat #5 Texas in 2006. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: If Nebraska was back, they would’ve won.
Pelini clearly has this team headed in the right direction, but there’s still a ways to go before NU rejoins the elite.
Chicago, IL
9/21/2009
I wonder if fans in the 80’s were debating when the Huskers would be back to early 70’s form? :)
I think “being back” will be something like identifying the end of a recession. We won’t know till a few seasons after it happens.
9/21/2009
No, we’re not back but it’s a bit much to be expecting that too. Even if we won by 20+ pts in Blacksburg, ok maybe a baby step that way. But Virginia Tech was not, a measuring stick to where we want to be. We didn’t play Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas or a USC (a USC team w/o the struggling offense). We’re a lot closer than where we were at the end of last year and that’s a little reassuring considering where we started two years ago. Well what do we have going into Conference play? Helu Jr., at the very least is as good as anyone in the conference at the moment & House of Spears is a monster but they’re our only two elite-level playmakers on the roster. Our defensive line is good enough to play with anyone’s offensive line in the conference, our Linebackers could settle down (they’re young & FR eventually become SO’s mentally about midway through 1st yr) and be playing well by year’s end. The Secondary still worries me a little against Texas Tech, Kansas & Oklahoma but it should be good enough to deal with whatever else it has to go against. . .
They’re young, they’re young. I kept telling myself that as time passed from that 88 yd drive. If they walk away from that saying that they never want to feel like that EVER again, then they’ll grow from the whole experience. Back? Well we’re not there yet. Next time you can find out? Missouri (nationally televisied, prime-time night game), Texas Tech (you gotta be ready for Air Leach or things can get out of control quickly) & Oklahoma (a real, live, in-the-flesh powerhouse). How they react to these three upcoming tests will go a long way as to how much more, or less time, it will take until we are back. . .
9/21/2009
I don’t think we’re back. But we’ve made leaps and bounds in not even two seasons…knock on wood. We’re headed in the right direction, but just remember how long it took Osborne to get there. And the game has changed tremedously since then. If anything, Pelini has a much tougher road to get us back to the national elite status. But the longest of journeys begins with one small step. Winning the Big 12 may be a long shot, but it’s still possible. Do that, and you’re in the National Title hunt. It’s a long season.
9/22/2009
To all above: Coaching cost this game. We had opportunities in the red zone when we targeted Holt, who obviously cant catch. Then we had chances at a long field goal when we punted on fourth and goal. Then we had a 4th and 1 opportunity in which 25yds of field position did not matter that much. And finally, you dont run a cover two defense on the last drive and leave safeties in 1 on 1 coverage on an island. I dont like prevent D but atleast play man coverage with safeties over the top and Vtech loses. Our corners where playing short routes, isnt that where we wanted vtech to throw it??????????
9/22/2009
“To all above: Coaching cost this game. We had opportunities in the red zone when we targeted Holt, who obviously cant catch.”
There’s plenty of blame to go around, and none of it will make any differences. I’m more interested in them fixing the problems than pointing fingers.
9/25/2009
is this comments block for comments on the football team or previous or upcoming nebraska games? if so… sorry bugeater fans… bo is an excellent defensive coach. he can get slow white athletes to play with heart and teach them the fundamentals. he can get them to over achieve. he can get a defense that lacks talent to hang with the best of em. what bo cant do is recruit. what bo cant do is get a team to avoid a punting situation on 4th and goal. i do not remember a t.o. coached team punting on fourth and goal. u did not see a t.o. team execute a total meltdown at a critical time in a big game. bo knows defense. a division 1 head coach bo is not. turner gill could have recruited bigtime talent. if he can get talent to come to BUFFALO… think who he could have coaxed to memorial stadium to play on tom osborne field on saturday afternoons. we are a huge step up from coach coz and coach bridges… but we have a ways to go til the 90s return :)
9/27/2009
I just read all of the comments after the article and chuckled. Care to take them all back one week later? Virgina Tech doesn’t look so bad after making Miami their “companions.” Maybe those Huskers weren’t as bad as you thought, eh? My what difference a week makes.
I took special exception to the “slow white athletes” comment, Scott. Are you saying white people can’t run fast? That’s more than a little racist and entirely untrue. In addition, do you still want to stick to your “Turner Gill as coach” choice after Buffalo’s start this season? After all, how many seasons has Gill had in Buffalo now? Where is Buffalo’s big-time talent that you say he would recruit? Do you think a start like Buffalo is having would be tolerated at Nebraska after the coach has been there a few years like Gill has been? No excuses, remember?
Oh I’m not done Scott. If you haven’t seen an Osborne team melt down and lose in the closing moments of a game, you haven’t watched Nebraska football. Do you want me to run a list of those games from the 70’s and 80’s, because you evidently weren’t born then?
Finally Scott, if you ever care to look at actual statistics, it was a well-known fact that Osborne’s teams were never loaded with top recruits—especially on offense. Osborne’s offensive scheme did not lend itself well to showcasing or developing those 4 and 5 star athletes for a professional career, so those athletes went elsewhere. Osborne’s players themselves will say that. Just listen to the UTUBE interview of Jason Peters talking about that very thing. How old are you, Scott? Enough said.
9/27/2009
I just read all of the comments after the article and chuckled. Care to take them all back one week later? Virgina Tech doesn’t look so bad after making Miami their “companions.” Maybe those Huskers weren’t as bad as you thought, eh? My what difference a week makes.
I took special exception to the “slow white athletes” comment, Scott. Are you saying white people can’t run fast? That’s more than a little racist and entirely untrue. In addition, do you still want to stick to your “Turner Gill as coach” choice after Buffalo’s start this season? After all, how many seasons has Gill had in Buffalo now? Where is Buffalo’s big-time talent that you say he would recruit? Do you think a start like Buffalo is having would be tolerated at Nebraska after the coach has been there a few years like Gill has been? No excuses, remember?
Oh I’m not done Scott. If you haven’t seen an Osborne team melt down and lose in the closing moments of a game, you haven’t watched Nebraska football. Do you want me to run a list of those games from the 70’s and 80’s, because you evidently weren’t born then?
Finally Scott, if you ever care to look at actual statistics, it was a well-known fact that Osborne’s teams were never loaded with top recruits—especially on offense. Osborne’s offensive scheme did not lend itself well to showcasing or developing those 4 and 5 star athletes for a professional career, so those athletes went elsewhere. Osborne’s players themselves will say that. Just listen to the UTUBE interview of Jason Peters talking about that very thing. How old are you, Scott? Enough said.
9/30/2009
Paul, I think you’re off base on a few things. Personally, I stand by my opinion that if Nebraska was back, they wouldn’t have lost to Virginia Tech. Close losses aren’t wins, even when they come against good teams. Top programs find ways to win. Nebraska’s getting better, but they’re not quite back yet.
I’m very happy with Pelini as coach, but it’s unfair to judge Turner Gill based on a rough start at Buffalo this year. That program was the laughingstock of college football five years ago, and Gill turned them into conference champions. The significance of that accomplishment can’t be overstated.
However, there’s only so much he can do at that school. The best recruiter alive couldn’t get top talent to go to Buffalo. Vince Lombardi himself couldn’t turn Buffalo into a national power. Buffalo is a stepping-stone job. Gill will coach a BCS program within five years. Let’s just hope it’s not Colorado.
10/7/2009
oh , husker fans always blame it on someone