CBSSports.com BlogPoll Top 25: Preliminary Preseason Edition

The first CBSSports.com BlopPoll ballots are due on Monday so here's your chance to critique and comment on my initial ballot before it gets shipped off to Brian at MGoBlog.

There's some debate as to what a preseason poll should actually be. Is it a power poll? That's difficult to do without seeing any games. Is it a predictor of the final ballot? That seems, at least in the preseason, based a little too heavily on schedule alone. I tried to incorporate a little of both into my preseason ballot, coming up with a straight power ranking then adjusting based on schedule with just a dusting of returning starters to be considered at the end.

First the ballot, then some explanation:

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Penn State
6. Alabama
7. Cal
8. Boise State
9. Virginia Tech
10. Ohio State
11. Oklahoma State
12. BYU
13. Mississippi
14. TCU
15. LSU
16. Georgia Tech
17. Georgia
18. Illinois
19. Nebraska
20. Kansas
21. Clemson
22. Iowa
23. Pitt
24. Miami (Florida)
25. Rutgers

Now, by way of explanation (from the top down):
--Number one is easy. At number two my inclination was to give the three-time defending Big 12 champs Oklahoma the nod out of respect thinking that, until Texas proves they can get past the Sooners...oh, wait...they have gotten past the Sooners two out of the last three years.

--As far as USC goes, they likely have as many chinks in their armor heading into this year as any of the past five seasons and it's tempting to try and take them down a few pegs. Then again, at USC the chinks are never really that big especially considering the question marks surrounding the teams directly below them.

--Penn State gets the nod as the potential Big 10 champ for two very big reasons: the Lions play Ohio State at home and the Buckeyes are potentially staring at an early loss to USC that would likely have them trailing Penn State in the polls for the rest of the season provided the Nittany Lions don't slip up at Illinois in October. Both teams have to replace quite a bit--PSU has 9 returning starters, OSU 12--but it still looks like your typical Big 10 season: Two teams clearly better than the rest who will meet late for a de facto BCS playoff. Yawn.

--Boise State's poll fate could be decided on the first Thursday night of the season when they face Oregon. Win that game--you'll notice the Ducks don't make my Top 25 with 9 returning starters--and the Broncos will basically be opposed by only their own foibles and lethargy on their way to another WAC title and, perhaps, undefeated season. Are they the 8th best team in the country? No, but they have the easiest route to finish around there.

--As noted before, I was never really convinced Virginia Tech was a top five team to start the season and the loss of Darren Evans didn't help matters. That said, projecting the ACC is a fairly scattershot proposition. I've got four teams from the conference in my Top 25 and I would hear arguments for swapping any of their positions with another.

--Oklahoma State and Ole Miss. Two of your four SI coverboys coming into the season and two teams largely viewed as ready to make the leap. I'm not totally buying a top 10 finish for either. Ole Miss has the schedule to do it. They don't face Florida and all of their tough SEC games are at home, but how big of a homefield advantage is Vaught-Hemingway Stadium? Even during their run to the Cotton Bowl with Eli Manning in '03 the Rebels dropped two at home and their 36-24 record at the Grove over the last nine years is fourth worst in the conference, besting only Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. By the time the Rebels face LSU on November 21 I fully expect the Tigers to be in top form.

Oklahoma State, Big 12 bias acknowledged, seems to have the tools to be a really good team. They'll have to be VERY good to get through Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma with anything less than two losses. With the OU game being the last game of the season, a potential road loss and drop in the polls late, number 11 seems more than fair.

--BYU over TCU simply because the Cougars get the Frogs at home.

--Illinois might be coming in a little high but it's hard to ignore the 85+ yards they outgained their opponents by on average last year.

--Nebaska and Kansas. They're purposely back to back as I think there are compelling arguments for either in the Big 12 North.

--Finally, the Big East squeaks in at 23/25 with Pitt and Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have the better schedule, but the Panthers have the better defense and, after listening to Bo Pelini talk for a year, that's enough for me to give them the leg up.

The final ballot isn't due until Monday, so here's your chance to sway me one way or the other in the comments below.

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Comments 13 comments so far

A comment on a couple of omissions that I forgot to add:

1) I’m not rewarding Notre Dame for a bowl win over Hawaii to end ‘08, and, in this case, I’m not going to gift them a ranking just because there’s no possible way they should lose more than three games. The Irish should be much better this year, but until they beat a team of some strength they’re on the outside looking in. Beat Michigan State and we’ll revisit this topic.

2) Florida State. A lot of people have them as a division favorite, but for me watching the Bowden era slowly come to an end the past few years has been like watching a bicycle tire slowly lose air. A shame for such an iconic coach, but FSU has been running on one tire for a while now with pretty good talent. I don’t see any reason to assume that’ll change this year.

Nice first ballot, Brandon. I have to chuckle at the omission of FSU. I don’t think there are many Husker fans who will disagree with you.

I like the Huskers at 19. I think Ole Miss might be a hair low at 13. They were darn good last year. And, while I love Rutgers, they don’t deserve to be ranked, IMO.

Can football get here soon enough!?!

What about the defending Big East Champs, Cinci?  Aren’t they returning a few players including their QB? 

caveman99,

I love Brian Kelly and Cincy does have a good deal of that mojo preseason polls are built on—momentum—but with only one returning starter on defense I’m wary. They’re pretty talented on offense but I’m not sure that’ll be enough to get them over the hump week after week.

I want Cincy to be there again in the Big East, but I can’t quite pull the trigger on paper.

Anyone like USF or WVU to finish ahead of Rutgers? Those seem like the two other BE teams in the mix.

Nice poll Brandon.  You’re right, it’s tough without a single down being played yet this year.  I’m with you.  I’m not ready to buy into the Ol’ Miss or Ok. St. hype just yet.  I also agree with VT not being a Top 5 team.  They’re tough, but I don’t see the reasoning behind them seemingly making ‘the jump’ this year.  Illinois falls on the same line for me.  They didn’t have a great season last year, but the Big 10 is weak.  I would take Oklahoma over Texas, but that’s probably due to my own bias.  Once you get to 25 it’s a crap-shoot.  I don’t think the Rutgers belong, but I’d be weary of WVU post-Pat White era.  USF maybe.  I’m going to make a bold proposition, and it may be due to my Big 12 bias.  Texas Tech at #25.  I know they lost their super stars, but I have to believe the system is still in place to put up lots of points.  Could be dead wrong though me matee. 

Nice poll Brandon.  You’re right, it’s tough without a single down being played yet this year.  I’m with you.  I’m not ready to buy into the Ol’ Miss or Ok. St. hype just yet.  I also agree with VT not being a Top 5 team.  They’re tough, but I don’t see the reasoning behind them seemingly making ‘the jump’ this year.  Illinois and Iowa fall into the same category for me.  They didn’t have great seasons last year, but the Big 10 is weak.  I would take Oklahoma over Texas, but that’s probably due to my own bias.  Once you get to 25 it’s a crap-shoot.  I don’t think the Rutgers belong, but I’d be weary of WVU post-Pat White era.  USF maybe.  I’m going to make a bold proposition, and it may be due to my Big 12 bias.  Texas Tech at #25.  I know they lost their super stars, but I have to believe the system is still in place to put up lots of points.  Could be dead wrong though me matee. 

No love for Oregon?

KW,

I like the Tech pick actually. Rumors of their decline this season still feel greatly exaggerated to me and at the end of the season the 25th ranked team is likely to have four losses anyway. Tech won’t lose in the nonconference, should be able to beat the bottom half of the Big 12, will almost assuredly lose to OU/Texas, and then they have three chances to impress with games against Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Kansas. Win two of those and they’re absolutely a Top 25 team, maybe even if they only win one and it comes at the right time.

It may take them a while to get there, but I could see Tech in the Top 25.

Are you mad…..Oregon is probably a top 10 team, and will probably destroy Boise st., enroute to a 7-0 meeting on Halloween in Eugene against SC!!!

Oregon has nine returning starters. Beat Boise on the blue and we’ll see.

Oregon has nine returning starters. Beat Boise on the blue and we’ll see.

It’s nice to see I’m not the only one out there who thinks strength of schedule should without a doubt be factored into a preseason poll. The only thing in the poll I don’t see eye to eye with you on is Notre Dame.  Like you ‘kind of’ said, they’ll lose three games - tops.  It’s hard to keep a team out of the Top 25 who will be in a BCS game.

I think you are right on most of your picks.  Maybe I wouldn’t put Illinois as high as you have them but I think they might just hit the top 25.  Take out Rutgers, replace with the Fighting I and put Texas Tech at 18.  TT always seems to reload well.

I truly think preseason polls are decided on solely for the purpose of setting teams up to be selected for television broadcasts. 

Any team that starts out ranked between 20-25 seem to me to be influenced by who they play early on.  Take Nebraska for instance, #22 in the Coaches poll is better advertisement for a match-up against #7 VT.  This is a very dangerous spot to be in.  A loss to VT would probably knock NU out of the top 25 to maybe 26.  A win against VT would probably still have VT higher ranked than NU (Maybe VT at #15 and NU at #16).  I like NU where you have them.  Still some cushion…just in case.

#24 BYU will get knocked out of the top 30 after taking a pounding from Oklahoma in their first game but atleast #3 Oklahoma vs #24 BYU sounds better. You have them at #12 but I don’t think they will do any poll recovery after that loss but should hang in around the 25-26 spot.  I don’t think they beat both TCU and Florida St but a teeter-totter effect will keep them towards the bottom of the top 25.

Coaches has Oregon State at #25 which I actually believe will end up in the 16-18 range by the time they play USC.  Not that I think Oregon State deserves this ranking but the Broadcasters will have something to sell for the Oregon State @ USC game.  Then once USC finishes them off say goodbye to a top 25 finish for them.  So I am glad you chose to keep them out of your poll.

I might put Penn St at # 10 just because I think they are a 2 loss team but good enough via their schedule to stay in the bottom of the top 10. (Ohio State looses to USC but beats Penn St.  Ohio St beats Penn St and Iowa catches the Nittany Lions during a kitty kat nap in Penn States own back yard.)

Okay I think I’ve put my two cents in.

GO BIG RED!!!!

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