Breaking Down the Betting Lines

With games just a few days out now, you can start placing your bets (for entertainment purposes only) about who will win and who will lose in the first week of the college season.  The Big Red Network has also been invited to submit weekly picks of the winners and losers in the Big Ten by the Daily Gopher.  But we won't stop there.  Read on.

September 2

No. Illinois @ Iowa State - The Huskies bring back nine starters from a strong defense that carried the team to a bowl game a year ago.  They also bring back a starting quarterback.  Meanwhile the Cyclones lose most of their defense (also the strength of their team), which is why they are favored by just a field goal at home.  Look for ISU to get the win and cover at home, but signs point to a long season.

Pitt @ Utah - If I say this might be one of the few losses for one of the better teams in a weak conference, you wouldn't know which school I was referring to.  The Panthers start a new quarterback while Utah replaces most of their defense.  Pitt looks better in terms of overall talent, but the Utes are favored by a field goal in part because Pittsburgh has a habit of losing to less talented teams.  Expect that trend to continue and Utah to cover at home.

Marshall @ Ohio State - No drama here but the point spread, where Marshall loses by just under four touchdowns to cover.

Minnesota @ Middle Tennessee - Give the Gophers a slight edge to win, but MTSU a slight edge to cover the three points. 

Towson @ Indiana - No line, no drama.  Hoosiers win big.

September 3

Arizona @ Toledo - The Wildcats are favored by more than two touchdowns.  Apparently they've been forgiven for how they played in the Holiday Bowl.  On paper, this one does not look like a defensive struggle.  The Rockets were terrible defensively a year ago and replaces half of their starters on both sides of the ball.  The Wildcats replace most of their defense, but it shouldn't matter.  Arizona should cover to finally get the bad taste out of their mouth from San Diego.

September 4

W. Michigan @ Michigan State - Spartans win but Broncos cover.

E. Illinois @ Iowa - No line, no drama.  Hawkeyes cruise.

Youngstown State @ Penn State - No line, no drama, Joe Pa will be happy when they wake him with the news that they've won big.

Illinois vs. Missouri - The Tigers are just under a two touchdown favorite.  Until a week ago, the only suspense was whether Ron Zook gets fired at halftime.  Mizzou would cruise.  But with the Derrick Washington suspension leaving the Tigers without their best rusher and a consistent scorer and perhaps a bit out of it mentally, look for the Illini to lose by only ten.

Colorado vs. Colorado St. - Two teams that were 3-9 a year ago face off with what should be improved teams.  The Rams pulled the upset a year ago.  The Buffs should win but CSU will again cover the thirteen points with most of their defense back and a returning starter at QB.

Northwestern @ Vanderbilt - Look for the outright upset by Vandy at home as the Wildcats break in a new quarterback.

Purdue @ Notre Dame - Irish are lucky enough to win, but not enough to cover 11.5.

UConn @ Michigan - Take the Huskies for the outright upset in Ann Arbor, but it should be very close.

UCLA @ Kansas State - The Wildcats are actually a field goal favorite at home.  KSU has a better head coach, but the Bruins should win this one just like they did a year ago with the more talented team.

Washington @ BYU - The Cougars are favored by three which could end Jake Locker's Heisman campaign before it really begins.  BYU's offense should decline as they break in a new quarterback and they lose most of their starters on defense (but still field a lot of upperclassman).  The Huskies have yet to show they can win a big road game though which is why the pick is the Cougars.

Wisconsin @ UNLV - Wisconsin is a way better team, but not three touchdowns better playing a very late game in Vegas.

W. Kentucky @ Nebraska - The Huskers are favored by 36 points.  My past exploration of what a sixth-ranked team ought to do to the Hilltoppers, suggests that might be a tad high.  So maybe take the underdog or just stay away.