Beware Baylor? Or Baylor Benign?
This summer, on golf course patios and in coffee shops all around Nebraska, people are discussing next season's opponents. I know, because I get drawn in to many of these conversations. People talk about whether the road trip to Virginia Tech will be as tough as playing at, say, Penn State seven years ago. They wonder if the Huskers can exorcise some demons from recent trips to Columbia and Lawrence. They wonder if NU has narrowed the gap with Oklahoma at all. And, inevitably, talk turns to Baylor, and if it is the "trap" game on the Husker schedule in 2009. We ooh and aah over Robert Griffin. Terms like "resurgence" get thrown around. It starts to get a bit scary. Then, some voice of reason points out that this is still Baylor, after all. No doubt many of you have had this conversation. So, I've decided to bring that discussion to BRN. Lets examine the Bears. Are they worth worrying about? Or are they still toothless?
Beware the Bears!
I think it is fair to start with the cautionary portion of this story. Baylor is an improving football team. Here is the case for their being able to beat NU.
1) Baylor has one salty head coach. I know you thought I was going to list Robert Griffin first. But, in college, coaching matters more than anything. Baylor has a coach that can take them to respectability. Art Briles won at Houston and he can win at Baylor. I'm a fan. He's making Baylor tougher, mentally and physically. He's making them fundamentally better. That is why the Bears are improving.
2) Now, the superstar... Robert Griffin is a breath taking player. I can think of very few players in the Big 12 who can be as electric (and productive) as he his. You literally hold your breath when he has the ball. He sort of reminds me of former Husker quarterback Jammal Lord, if Lord had world-class speed. He has the same long stride, crazy elusiveness for a big man, and the same long wind up and delivery when throwing. Seriously, check it...
Worse news for Baylor opponents - Griffin is efficient. Forget the running for a second if you can. Last season, he threw for more than 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns while only throwing three interceptions. And he didn't even start all season. He was Newcomer of the year, Freshman of the Year, and a Freshman All-American. The kid is the real deal.
And, Griffin is not the only play maker the Bears have. They have a leader on defense, too. Jordan Lake is a tackle machine, and could be legit All Conference. They got a massive transfer from Penn State in defensive tackle Phil Taylor. They return nine starters on offense from last year. It's enough to fuel legit bowl speculation for the Bears.
3) Specific to the Husker game with Baylor, this season the game is on the road in Waco. It's a game that the Bears and their fans will consider a "statement" game, with the chance to beat a big name opponent. And, it falls on Halloween weekend. In my experience, some weird things can happen on that weekend. It's, uh, scary. Right?
Dude, Come On. It's Baylor...
Hold up. Stop. Wait a minute. Pause. Let's get a reality check on the hype machine for a second. There are many reason why Nebraska should beat Baylor this season.
1) Baylor isn't that good, folks. For all of Griffin's amazing play, this a team that went 4-8 last year, and just 2-6 in conference. And, oh yeah, one of the teams to beat them was Nebraska. Baylor's wins were against Northwestern State (not Northwestern... Northwestern STATE) and three of the worst teams within BCS conferences last year - Washington State, Iowa State, and Texas A&M. Lets not get carried away. Sure, they will be improved. It's hard not to be. There is still a long way to jump when you are 4-8.
2) Games don't happen in a vacuum. Make no mistake, Nebraska will be improved too. Do you think this year's corps of Husker linebackers might just be a little more prepared and equipped to tackle Griffin than last year's bunch? I do. Or do I have to show you the film of converted running back Cody Glenn's struggles in last years game? Also, remember that everyone sees Griffin and company coming this year. It's a bit tougher when everybody is game planning for you all off season. Just saying...
Also, remember that football is the ultimate team sport. The Bears got scorched on defense last year. That will need to improve a lot before anyone can really buy in to the hype. Remember my reference to Jammal Lord? Recall that the 2002 Husker team he led went 7-7, and it was kind of an ugly 7-7. He made plays. But, there just was not a lot around him. It's possible to have a spectacular player or two, be very productive, and still lose games. Just ask the Davis brothers from Iowa State.
3) Waco? Please. Yes, this year's game with Baylor is on the road. Yes, some strange things can happen on Halloween weekend. But, seriously, this is Waco. Baylor football is an after thought for many people there. You can by tickets on the 50 yard line for 10 bucks. Yes, there will be more interest in this year's Bear team and fans around the country tend to show up more when teams like Nebraska are in town. But, this is hardly a formidable venue. It's not Norman, that's for sure. NU has been in much tighter spots.
My Verdict
The Bears will be improved. They have a good coach and emerging stars. They could make a bowl if they show guts. But, the Huskers will be improved too, especially on defense. The Huskers still have more overall talent. And, Waco just isn't scary enough, even on Halloween. I think the Huskers can get it done. But, it will be a ball game. What do you think?
7/13/2009
I would tend to agree with you on this post, but I would add the following. Relatively speaking we played them early last year and it was more a case of us letting them make it interesting becuase of our mistakes and less becuase they were the better team. Eventually talent overcame the mistakes and NU secured the win. I think that if you play that game in late November a serious beating ensues.
Also Bo & Carl will have had a year and a bit to continue to coach sound assignment football into the defense which is exactly what you need to play against explosive playmakers surrounded by mediocre talent like Griffin is. Griffin elevates his teams play by forcing you to overcompensate for him.
Also we won’t be shooting ourselves in the foot on Offense and Baylor should be playing from behind. Hopefully.
NU wins going away 42-17
7/13/2009
I just rewatched the game from last year, and I have to say that Baylor’s RB Finley was a major factor in that game. He broke tackles and burst for yardage on many plays. But he should have been tackled for losses many times. I think NU will be more fundamentally sound on defense this season and make more tackles against the RB’s and those quick WR screens.
Griffin was impressive running the ball and improvising, but he only had a couple big runs that really hurt NU. And BU took advantage of the NU defense by getting up and snapping the ball quickly before NU was set. I think NU will be ready for that tactic this year.
Overall, I agree with Darren that Baylor will be an improved team and at home so they’ll make a game of it. But unless NU makes a bunch of mistakes, the Huskers should pull away in the 2nd half and win by 14+ points.
7/13/2009
I tend to agree with the article on both sides, and I agree with iggy above.
Baylor, (I mean Griffin), will most likely be the biggest threat, but I think we will be ready this year. We are faster, stronger and more prepared than last year.
7/13/2009
Bravo for using direct analysis to combat a fan’s inborn speculation and worry.
Maybe this has already been done/talked about, but has anyone thought about the acclimation of Pelini and his staff to the Big 12 style of play and how that could help his cause? I know all the guys see film, but being on the field and making calls in real time against these conference opponents has to have a positive effect from year 1 to year 2+. Start to figure out opposing coaches mentalities, etc.
Chicago, IL
7/13/2009
FYI, some Baylor fans are discussing this article over here.
7/13/2009
I’m curious why no discussion of NU’s offense? I’m a Baylor alum, so understand I’m coming from that side of the fence. I also believe defense is critical in winning a game and having a great season and a great team. But, how do you score? I understand you have a great backfield, but an unproven QB. Not exactly what should give you confidence that you will put a lot of points on the board.
That’s why I think this one is close. Not sure who wins honestly. I think the NU defense will be stout and will test Briles and Griffin, but with NU’s lack of offensive fire power, and defense’s improvement (which will be improved from last year - refer back to the writer’s vacuum comment) there’s plenty here to make for an exciting game.
Also, keep in mind that Briles’ playbook was pretty limited last year. We probably only saw about 10% of what he wants to do. He had a bunch of guys learning his system so he stuck with the KISS method. He’s opening things up a little more this year and will even moreso in 2010.
If you are going off the blueprint of what you saw last year in Lincoln, then I think the observation here made by the writer and Husker fans is just folly.
Both teams will be improved. We shall see what we shall see.
7/13/2009
Good write up, and that’s coming from a Bear. The writer remembered Phil Taylor whom will be a close 2nd to Suh as a DT….that is the truth. This game will be a TD game either way. A great offensive mind vs. a great defensive mind. Looking forward to a close match up for once.
7/13/2009
Guythehammer from the Baylor site says of this article:
“Pretty good stuff…but I’m not sure Nebraska counts as a big name opponent.”
Sooooo . . . he wants to play THAT game huh? Not biting, just wanted to put that over here as a little lockerroom reading for Husker players and fans.
I guess Nebraska is still aways from striking fear in the hearts of opponents again. We will see what we see.
7/13/2009
Hey, looking forward to seeing Nebraska out in Waco this year. Agree that Baylor hasn’t shown it can compete at the top of the Big 12, but by the end of this season I think you agree we are a competitive team. Most what I have seen on the BU fan sites is that you are slightly favored, but the season will be closer to a tossup. You have great tradition, a history of winning, and should be improved from last year. But I think we will be improved also. Best of luck (except against the Bears)!
7/13/2009
An article from CFN mentions a few key 2008 stats that I thought were very telling. The stats represent 2 reasons Baylor and other teams will not beat the Huskers very easily if we can repeat these trends for 2009:
- Fourth quarter scoring: Nebraska 155 - Opponents 52
- Time of possession: Nebraska 34:01 - Opponents 25:59
However, on the other hand, if we don’t improve these two stats…a team like Baylor could pull an upset:
- Fumbles over the last two years: Nebraska 40 (lost 28) – Opponents 32 (lost 8)
- Penalties: Nebraska 94 for 800 yards - Opponents 64 for 477 yards
Maybe this is the year we turn these two negative stats around? I also expect special teams this year to be a game changer. Last year was certainly an improvement, but this year we are going to see those R-Freshmen speedsters contributing on special teams in a big way.
7/16/2009
The other thing to keep in mind is that Baylor loses just about all the major talent on their OL from last year. Watch that video again and look at how many times Griffin had to scramble and amplify that by about 2 or 3 times this year. I mean, their LT was a first round draft pick. You don’t replace that kind of talent easily.
A lot of people don’t worry about the guys up front a lot, but I like the looks of our DL against their OL. Griffin will get his yards I’m sure, but the faster we can blow up their plays (which I’m confident our DL will be much better at this year), the less time Griffin even has to run their expanded playbook. I realize he’s a great improviser, but I feel good about our DL.
7/20/2009
A good balanced article although I would point out that Griffin was a true freshman last year. Most of the offense that you will see this year was not even installed and Griffin has some playmakers around him as well.
That being said the O line is a great concern as is the ability of our defense to keep the game within reach. Tech was pretty good last year and we nearly pulled off the upset with the last game of the season. I don’t think the time of year will greatly effect the result of this one as I expect both teams to improve and adjust throughout the year. Should be a fun one to watch.