Bad Omen for Badgers
All things considered, the prospects of a Big Ten championship game appearance for Wisconsin seem very good. Ohio State and Penn State are not allowed to play in the game, Illinois is trying to end a six-game conference losing streak and break in a new coaching staff, Purdue is well...Purdue, and Indiana - get real. So the Badgers should waltz into the Big Ten conference game with little trouble. The non-conference schedule isn't daunting either. So you'd have good reason to think that they could match or improve on their 11-3 record from a year ago. But one very positive statistic from 2011 could actually be a negative going into 2012.
Phil Steele presents a list annually of teams with the best and worst turnover margins from the year before. Like most statistical extremes, regression to the mean is inevitable. That is, when you look at the range of performance for 100+ schools, the teams at the very top or bottom of a list one year are likely to move closer to the middle the following year. Wisconsin was the best in the Big Ten and third best in the country in turnover margin with 16 more takeaways than giveaways. Since 1996, teams that are +10 or better in turnovers one year have a worse record the following year 77% of the time. You could take that to mean there is a 77% chance that Wisconsin will finish worse than 11-3 in 2012.
That's not the only reason to think that Wisconsin might regress either. They lost first-team All-Big Ten players in quarterback Russell Wilson, guard Kevin Zeitler, center Peter Konz, tackle Josh Oglesby, safety Aaron Henry and cornerback Antonio Fenelus, as well as second-team all-conference receiver Nick Toon, honorable mention defensive tackle Patrick Butrym, punter Brad Nortman and kicker Philip Welch, and a fifth-round NFL draft pick in fullback Bradie Ewing. In addition they lost seniors tight end Jake Byrne, defensive end Louis Nzegwu, and linebacker Kevin Claxton. That's a lot of talent to lose all at once.
But focusing just on the turnovers, look no further than the game against Nebraska a year ago. Wisconsin scored 21 straight points after three interceptions of NU quarterback Taylor Martinez. While the margin of victory was greater than that, it seemed to be the decisive factor in the game. Prior to the picks, NU held a 14-13 lead. Afterward, things came apart for Nebraska. Now imagine if that the plus two turnover margin for Wisconsin became a minus two. That would be a net swing of four turnovers that might be worth as much as 28 points. It's those kind of changes that could take the Badgers from 11-3 to 10-4.
It's hard to imagine things getting much worse than that for U-Dub. You'd think the Badgers would go 4-0 in the non-conference schedule (Northern Iowa, @ Oregon State, Utah State, UTEP) even if they do spot their opponents some turnovers. You also have to like their chances hosting Illinois and Minnesota and in road games at Purdue and Indiana. That doesn't leave many potential losses. They host Michigan State and Ohio State, both teams that beat Wisconsin a year ago. Then there is the road game at Nebraska at night to open the conference season and perhaps Penn State's "bowl game" in Happy Valley to end the year (though the Nittany Lions got crushed by U-Dub last year). The Badgers then likely will play in the Big Ten championship game and a bowl game. Steele's turnover numbers would suggest that Wisconsin will lose four of those six games. That seems like a good omen for Nebraska come September.
Madison
8/16/2012
I laughed so hard reading this article! Pretty funny stuff - and a real stretch of the imagination. Can’t wait for football to begin so some real reporting can start again. WiscONsin!
8/16/2012
Careful Badger Fan99… Do you really think Udub will continue to stay outside the statistical norm losing that many Seniors? Read the Steele article, “Teams that benefitted from double-digit turnovers the previous year rarely get a repeat of that good fortune. In the last 19 years, 281 teams have had plus double-digit turnovers. Of those 281, 182 have had weaker records the following year (64.8%).” Udub at +16 in 2011? You just drew the attention of Karma…
8/16/2012
Hey badger fan don’t be so cocky to think that the badgers can’t have an off season it amazes me to see how worked up people get over an article of opinions and the possibilities of what could happen. I also can’t believe how the fans of the big ten think that the HUSKERS can’t compete with the big ten teams. Ya I agree that the big ten is a stronger conference than the big 12 . I have noticed that badger and wolverine fans are among the worst fans in the nation with the exception of Colorado fans “terrible”... But go ahead and think that the badgers can’t be defeated by the HUSKERS, good luck this season and please visit Lincoln on the 29th so you can see it with your own eyes. GO BIG RED ... I’m talking about the real BIG RED “HUSKERS”
8/16/2012
BadgerFan99,
Thanks for visiting BRN. I think you guys have a program up there you can be real proud of. I hope you guys can win them all this year with the exception of the game in Lincoln. Look forward to meeting up with Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship. GBR!!!
8/16/2012
Not only that good analysis, but Wisconsin hasn’t been a very good road team either. I just hope that foolish alt-uniform nonsense and first night conference game of the year doesn’t have UNL too cranked up with pressure to win in front of a national audience.
8/17/2012
This year the Badgers will not have a better QB than Wilson. That guy will be a good NFL player. Losing a QB like Wilson will lower your Win total from the previous year. However, the Badgers will be going to the B1G Championship Game by default.
8/17/2012
Great article, Steve! What I find amusing is how ‘Badger Fan99’ can argue with a man who makes a living being a statistician. Regression from the mean; reminds me of my MBA days. Bottom line is that it’s hard for guys like ‘Badger Fan99’ to counter a factual and logically based article.
Sincerely,
“The Hedgehog”; Ron Jeremy
8/17/2012
BadgerFan99,
Do try to keep in mind that last year you did defeat the Huskers, but you were also defeated by two teams the Huskers defeated.
You did manage to play a thrilling and close Conference Championship game against a team we defeated by 17 points.
You also played a close game against a team we scored 21 unanswered points against in the forth quarter. Additionally, you played them after their quarterback had already been hobbled by an injury he sustained against us in our game.
Take away three turnovers that were primarily the result of some bad play calling, and well, the article makes perfect sense.
Good article Steve.
Madison
8/17/2012
I am laughing while reading this article because the author isn’t basing a better season on improvement by Nebraska, but a statistical projection of another team getting worse. Still can’t wait for actual football and real football reporting. I will be in Nebraska for the September 29th game. I hope it’s as good as the last game between Nebraska and Wisconsin….WiscONsin!
8/18/2012
Egads. I’m laughing because the author clearly hasn’t been watching BTen football for more than one year! Yes, Wisconsin WILL be near the top of the TO margin category this year, and next year, and the next, the next, etc. It’s because of their STYLE OF PLAY. This stat is relevant for most teams, but completely irrelevant when analyzing a team like the Badgers.
8/20/2012
Badger Fan99,
Not much different from basing a Wisconsin pick for the Big Ten championship game on Ohio State being ineligible. But hey, you try filling a web site with 260+ days worth of content without ever talking about an opponent. Let me know how it goes.
Grady,
Judging from your manners, I suspect I’ve been watching Big Ten football since before you were born. I suspect I’ve also seen a lot more of Danny O’Brien than you have. He threw 7 touchdowns against 10 picks last year. That’s why he lost his starting job AT MARYLAND (let that one sink in) and transferred. By midseason, you’ll be screaming for Bielema to bench him. That’s a lot different than Wilson throwing 17 touchdowns against 1 interception at NC State as a FRESHMAN. I would say O’Brien and Wilson couldn’t be more different in their STYLE OF PLAY, wouldn’t you? Particularly, when you see O’Brien get all of his rushing yards in the wrong direction. Also, if you click on the Phil Steele article you’ll see him mention that Maryland (with O’Brien as the starter) was the #1 victim of regression to the mean last year as they were SEVEN games worse than the year before. Maybe I’m giving Wisconsin too much credit by saying they could win ten games.
8/21/2012
I am laughing while reading this article because the author isn’t basing a better season on improvement by Nebraska, but a…
Ok, on that, you make a fine point. But it is one of interpretation. But the point of the article was to disclose the statistical evidence, not necessarily state that Wisconsin has regressed. Think of it as a mathematical pep-talk. A reason to go to your defense and tell them not to let up…
8/22/2012
My point, Mr. Hanway (howz them for manners?), is this: more than any team in the country Wisconsin values turnover margin. Their power run game leads to fewer TOs than most teams, and it’s also important to them because their offense is not able to come from behind quickly. Year after year after year they should be well above the national average in TO margin. Now, I like to look at the TO stat because it CAN identify middle-of-the-road teams who benefited one year from a positive TO ratio—but it doesn’t really apply to the Badgers. By the way, when they annointed OBrien this week as the starter you undoubtedly heard Bielema’s reason why: he threw fewer INTs during the practices. And for the record, I’m not a Badger fan.
8/22/2012
(Mr.) Grady,
How do you prove or quantify that Wisconsin “values turnover margin more than any team in the country”? And likewise, how does valuing something more automatically make you good at it? In four of Bielema’s six seasons as head coach at Wisconsin, the TO margin has been nothing to crow about. They finished #47, #58, #70, and #97 under Bielema. Is he a Johnny-come-lately to the whole “values” thing? But I’m sure you’re right. Being a top four team in turnover margin is written in stone for the Badgers and regression to the mean isn’t something that’s been proven time and again in statistics. Also, nothing screams continuity like losing six assistant coaches in one offseason as U-Dub did. You’ll also have to explain to me how Nebraska had so many turnovers in 1999 running the ball 49 times a game if Wisconsin running 42 times produced so few. Or for that matter what about all those other seasons when Wisconsin ran the ball a lot but still had a mediocre or bad turnover margin. No values, I guess.
As for the O’Brien pick, Wisconsin had to pick somebody, right? Joe Dailey probably threw fewer interceptions in practice than Beau Davis, that doesn’t mean I want either one as my quarterback. If those names don’t mean anything to you, insert Rex Grossman for Joe Dailey and John Beck for Beau Davis.