AP Right About One Thing
As of right now, Nebraska and Missouri are preparing for a game that will likely set one of these teams on a course to win the Big 12 North. If the Huskers prove that they can win on the road against a tough divisional foe, then they have a shot to beat most of the teams on the schedule. If Missouri is able to win one to start the season, then the questions about all the personnel losses during the off season go away. According to the rankings of the AP Poll, Missouri is ranked 24th behind Nebraska's 21st. In the USAToday, Nebraska is at 22, four spots behind number 18 Missouri. Which Poll Is Right? As you can tell from my title, I believe there is a correct answer (WARNING: Numbers and tables ahead).
How exactly did I come to this conclusion? As usual, the answers to most of my questions about football comes in two forms. I often point to the numbers, stats, or rankings of various categories. The other criteria is usually which opponents a team has played against. I've decided to look at both and combine the two to get what I'm looking for.
In the table below, I've listed each of the statistical categories that the NCAA tracks on their website and compared both Missouri's and Nebraska's rankings and actual numbers. For your convenience, I have color coded the areas in which Nebraska is ahead of Missouri and the same for those in which MU is ahead of NU (Black Text/White Background indicates a tie).
As you can clearly see, the Huskers are clearly leading the Tigers in 12 out of 17 major offensive, defensive, and special teams categories. I understand the importance of having an excellent passing game, as well as great punting, but time and time again, we hear that there are a few keys to winning programs. One is to have a strong rushing attack, as well as being able to stop the run. The other is to have a stout defense.
As I was explaining our lead in numbers to Missouri fans recently, I was asked, "What cream puffs did you guys roll to build up your numbers?" This is obviously a great retort unless there is a way to determine if our "cream puff" opponents were tougher than Missouri's. Here's how to put together the following chart:
- Compile the national ranking and actual numbers of the opponents for each team (from first five weeks of the season)
- Average those numbers up
- Take the difference (any numbers with a difference of less than one I considered a tie).
Again, it is obvious that Nebraska's opponents hold a clear statistical advantage over Missouri's opponents in the major areas. But what do all these numbers really tell us? Hopefully, they indicate which team is more likely to come away with a victory. Only Thursday night will tell.
10/6/2009
Thanks for laying all of that out for folks to see, Tom. No doubt, NU’s stats through 4 weeks are better than MUs.
The comparisons that jump out at me most are NU’s rush offense vs MU’s rush defense, and NU’s top ranked scoring defense vs. MU’s passing attack.
About opponents, much has been made of NU’s Sun-Belt heavy schedule. I think Arkansas State’s recent performance against Iowa says quite a bit. And, lets not discount VT, folks. I know, I know…NU LOST that game. But, the Huskers looked every bit there equal and then some. Who does MU counter that with? Illinois? Child, please…
10/6/2009
While stats are fun and show trends, they do not show some advantages Missouri enjoys. Firstly; they have played two road games and won both. One might argue that St. Louis is a neutral site, however, it is not Faurot field.
Secondly; they have met adversity and overcome it to win albeit over an overmatched Bowling Green a top 25 team should have handled easily at home. Do they give MU an edge? I seriously doubt it, and if it does it’s a false sense of security. What I took away from watching the Illini and Nevada games is that the Tigers are not as physical, do not run the ball well, nor do they defend the run well. They have one monster of a wide receiver that BG needs time to find. They do have good receivers that run quick routes, and who have made good yards after the catch. BG moves well in the pocket, but when flushed still looks for a completion. He hasn’t been pressured the way Lee experienced at Blacksburg, so we don’t know how he’ll respond to that. To me that’s the wild card in this matchup. If the Blackshirts (yes, I think they’ve earned them after a shutout) can pressure Gabbert early and often, does he get rattled and start throwing bad passes? Asante and company are hoping he does. It will be up to Suh and company to make sure he does. Pressuring Gabbert and a relentless Husker running attack will be the keys to victory. I believe they will do both.
GBR!