4-3?  How About 3-4?

One of the headlines heading into the game against Michigan is how Nebraska is likely to play with three linebackers for much of the game this week instead of just one or two (which NU has had to use facing teams that feature three or more receivers). Certainly, stopping the run is of paramount importance for Nebraska on Saturday. Denard Robinson has killed teams with his legs, but not so much with his arm. Even his biggest days in terms of passing yardage against BCS competition (against Northwestern and Notre Dame last year) saw him throw three interceptions each time. So a 4-3 seems like a better alignment to use than a 4-2-5 or 4-1-6. But why stop at 3 linebackers?

 

It's Worked Before

The biggest win of the Bo Pelini era (on paper anyway) was a home victory over seventh-ranked Missouri in 2010. In that game, NU surprised the Tigers by coming out with a 3-4 look that caught Mizzou totally unprepared. MU was a spread team which is quite a bit different than a Michigan squad that lines up often with a fullback and a tight end. Still, Alabama (a 3-4 team) and Notre Dame (with their "no crease" 3-4) had huge days against the Wolverines defensively using the 3-4. Going further back in time, the 3-4 morphs quite well into a 5-2 which Nebraska ran in the 1980's to combat Barry Switzer's option teams. It can be a terrific run-stuffing front. You want to keep contain on Robinson? You can widen out that front with an extra man without creating huge holes inside. On passing downs, you can drop 8 or bring zone blitzes to confuse Robinson. Michigan doesn't give up many sacks, but zone blitzes allow you to get pressure without exposing the secondary.

 

NU Has the Personnel

Cameron Meredith's versatility (the ability to play end or tackle) on the defensive line makes him an excellent candidate to play end in a 3-4 scheme. Jason Ankrah is probably big enough to handle a similar assignment on the other side. Baker Steinkuhler could be capable of filling the role of nose tackle (though he's certainly not built like the classic 3-4 nose). Eric Martin seems like an ideal 3-4 linebacker, since you usually look for 'tweeners that have both end and backer skills. Sean Fisher hasn't seen time as an end, but his 6'6" frame seems just right. With Santos ready for more time and Will Compton sure to play plenty, the pieces may be there to run a 3-4.

 

Depth on the Line

Let's also not forget the injuries that have plagued NU at defensive tackle. Thad Randle seems to limp off the field in every game. Chase Rome and Kevin Williams may still not be available. With so many tackles banged up, using only one at a time could help compensate for that. If you take Eric Martin out of the mix at defensive end, Joe Carter can still allow you some rotation at end.

 

Then Again

There are counter-arguments of course. With a young player like Santos and a still new defensive coordinator in Papuchis, you may not want to get away from the bread and butter 4-man fronts. The 3-4 can put particular pressure on the inside linebackers if you bring the outside backers up to the line. Without a jumbo nose man, the defense could be particularly soft in the middle. Even pass-happy Missouri rushed for 142 yards against the Huskers 3-4. You could flash back to Nebraska's big comeback win against Texas A&M in 2002 against an undermanned 3-4. If you can move that middle nose, those iso-plays can get pretty hard to stop. How Steinkuhler holds up should be evident fairly quickly. So NU could try the 3-4 look and if all goes well, stay with it. If Michigan comes up with an answer, you could go back to the 4-3 pretty easily.

Regardless of the front the Huskers use, they have to be assignment sound and tackle well. That will matter more than how they line up anyway. Still, Alabama and Notre Dame's success against Michigan this year with a 3-4 makes it awfully attractive.

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Comments 7 comments so far

The line “Regardless of the front the Huskers use, they have to be assignment sound and tackle well.” mean awhole lot more than what scheme they are going to use.  I just don’t see Bo making any drastic changes.

I think there are good arguments presented here.  I think the best support is the fact that Alabama and Notre Dame had major success using it.  One could also argue we don’t have the line to run the 4-3 and still be successful, i.e. put pressure on the QB with our front four, like MSU.  But…Pelini didn’t seem to use tape that he had on how to successfully stop Michigan last year, so I doubt he will do it this year.  I guess one could counter that we don’t have the defense of an Alabama or Notre Dame, so how could we run their scheme?  I still say it’s worth a shot as our base D can’t generate pressure as it is, so why not go for it.  I expect our D to look like it’s stuck in neutral for most of the game and we have to rely on outscoring Michigan.  The problem is, they seem to show abilities in defending an offense that they see all the time in practice…and we don’t.

If we had a great D this game would be a piece of cake. Our offense is MUCH better, and has a lot more scoring weapons. One of the keys to containing mobile QB’s as Mich State has shown, is pressure. But the real question is do we have the horses to dominate up front? Probably not. And, how good is their offensive line? Probably pretty good. It’s going to be tuff because Baker Steinkooler and the others aren’t exactly a dominating presence up front. Maybe just get as many bodies close to the line and make him beat us with his arm?

Michigan will dominate us up front on both sides of the ball, so expect a lot of third and long plays on offense and a lot of different blitzes on defense.  We can not afford to have more than one turnover in this game period.  Can Taylor Martinez carve up the MU defense with his arm? Probably not consistently.  Can our first defender corral and wrap up Robinson on every play?  I think not.  Painful to predict this, but…..Michigan 35 - NU 17.  Following this game the bloggers will call for Pelini to be fired again, similar to the OSU week.

Michigan was able to score 14 on Alabama.
Michigan was able to score 7 on Notre Dame.
I think Michigan is capable of scoring 21 on us
but not a lot more.  Offensively, we have more
weapons than they do, it is simply a matter of
how well our offense can score points, eat clock
allow the Defense to rest and make adjustments.

Nebraska 31 - U of M 21.

I believe it will boil down to who has the most accurate kicker in this particular game.

Stop teasing us by making us think our defense can stop Dennard.

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